The Oaks et Epsom

an excellent card at Epsom today to start off the Derby Meeting, and obviously The Oaks at 17.00 CET is the main Feature. This Group One race for 3yo fillies over 1 1/2 miles has 17 runners and looks wide open. Punters must bear in mind that historically this is a very bad race for favourites; that dubious honour probably goes to Marvellous (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien) after her easy win in the Irish 1,000 Guineas. That race was only 12 days ago, and this is a totally different track and the race is over a much longer distance. The draw on the inside is also a disadvantage here, and we shall not be backing her, although it would be no surprise if she were to win. O´Brien has pulled this off before, but he also has two other runners Palace (Ryan Moore) and Dazzling (Seamus Heffernan) and they also cannot be totally ignored. However we prefer another Irish filly Tarfasha (Dermot Weld/ Pat Smullen), even though she wears the owner´s second colours, with Taghrooda (John Gosden/ Paul Hanagan) the number one. An outsider could well win today, and the two longshots we like best are Anipa (Roger Varian/ Andrea Atzeni) and Momentus)(David Simcock/ Harry Bentley), who both have the right pedigree for the race and are quoted at 40-1 or better.
There are also two Group Threes on the card, both over the extended mile. Thistle Bird (Roger Charltpon/ James Doyle) is the likely favourite for the opening Princess Elizabeth Stakes at 14.35; she won the race last year and is top-rated today. Just The Judge (Charlie Hills/ Jamie Spencer) won the Irish 1,000 last year but has been disappointing since, while Odeliz (Karl Burke/ Danny Tudhope) and Mango Diva (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore) both finished in front of Thistle Bird at York last time. Last year´s winner also runs in the Diomed at 15,45; that is Gregorian (Gosden/ William Buick), who however has not run since October, and possibly Graphic (William Haggas/ Ryan Moore) can be preferred, while the two Godolphin runners are also dangerous.
CD experience is always an advantage at this tricky track, so it is no surprise tjhat last year´s winners show up again in the two most difficult handicaps - Resurge (Wilf Kittow/ Tom Queally) at 15.10 and Vainglory (Simcock/ Martin Lane) at 16.20. Obviously they should go on the short list again, but we prefer Hi There (Richard Fahey/ Ryan Moore) in the former event and Abseil (Stoute/ Doyle) in the latter, although both are very difficult.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Thistle Bird - Odeliz - Mango Diva
2. Race: Soviet Rock - Tres Coronas - Air Pilot
3. Race: Gregorian - Graphic - French Navy
4. Race: Abseil - Farlow - Dance And Dance
5. Race: Marvellous - Taghrooda - Tarfasha
6. Race: That Is The Spirit - Parbold - Penny Drops
7. Race: Legend Rising - Kafeel - Bretherton