Derby Day!

there are 8 meetings in the U.K. and Ireland today, but one race stands out - the Investec Derby to be run at Epsom at 17.00 CET. The days are long gone when it was regarded as the most important race in the world and when the British parliament would recess so that MPs could travel down to Surrey to see the race, but it is still a major sporting event and also worth almost a million euros to the winner.
No trainer has ever won this race three years running, but Aidan O´Brien has a good chance today. he saddles 4 runners: Australia, with his son and main jockey Joseph in the saddle, Geoffrey Chaucer (Ryan Moore), Orchestra (Seamus Heffernan) and Kingfisher (Colm O´Donoghue). All are of course beautifully-bred, especially Australia, who is by Derby winner Galileo out of Oaks winner Ouija Board, and this one has been the hot favourite ever since betting opened.This is partly because of his reputation, which has been helped by the usual hype from the trainer himself ("best we have ever had" etc - we have heard all this before), but it is also justified by his latest performance when third in the 2,000 Guineas, form which has been strongly boosted since and is clearly the best in the race. To our mind, there are only 3 problems - he is still very inexperienced, has never raced beyond a mile, and he seems to be dependent on good going. At the moment the ground is just right, but heavy showers are forecast for Epsom today which could well change the complexion of the race. He is certainly the most likely winner, but his odds are still skinny (although lengthening by the hour!). Of O´Brien´s other runners, Kingfisher won the Dee Stakes, but that form is hardly good enough, while Orchestra won a better race at Chester by a nose from the supplemented Romsdal (John Gosden/ Richard Hughes), while Geoffrey Chaucer has the best big-race jockey in the saddle. He was only third in a very messy race at Leopardstown last time, behind Ebanoran (John Oxx/ Declan McDonough), who was disqualified in favour of Fascinating Rock (Dermot Weld/ Pat Smullen). Amazingly, Dermot Weld has never yet won the Derby, but to be honest we don´t think he will win it today and expect the other two to be in front of him now.
We expect an Irish winner and Kingston Hill (Roger Varian/ Andrea Atzeni) appears to be the best British hope. He is the only Group One winner in the field, having won the Racing Post Trophy on heavy ground, and probably needs the rain to come to give him a chance. Gosden´s two runners could also figure, especially Western Hymn )William Buick), who is still unbeaten, while we certainly expect True Story (Saeed bin Suroor/ Kieren Fallon) to run much better than he did at York, when he finished behind Arod (Peter Chapple-Hyam/ Jamie Spencer); those two clearly prefer faster ground, which they might still get. Godolphin have two more runners in the field, but they need to improve, although we would love to see the Monsun colt Pinzolo run well.
The weather in the next few hours (as we write, it is six hours to post time) could well be decisive, but if it remnains on top we expect Australia to justify the hype and give O´Brien hjs third successive victory.
Another historic classic to be run today (actually in the early hour of tomorrow morning) is the Belmont Stakes, due off at 0.52 CET in New York. California Chrome (Art Sherman/ Victor Espinoza) is clearly the top American 3yo after his wins in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness and he will attempt to be the 12th winner of the Triple Crown. On pedigree he is not at all certain to stay the longer distance - but nor are any of his rivals. No horse has managed to win the Triple Crown since Affirmed in 1979, and 12 have failed since, but we think Californa Chrome can do it and bring off a huge success for his small stable and veteran trainer.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Yenhaab - Al Busayyir - Galizzi
2. Race: Baitha Alga - Ballymore Castle - Red Icon
3. Race: Flintshire - Talent - Empoli
4. Race: Smoothtalkinrascal - Caspian Prince - Steps
5. Race: Australia - Kingston Hill - Geoffrey Chaucer
6. Race: Stomachion - Dare To Achieve - Miss Marjurie
7. Race: Ashpan Sam - Bondesire - Desert Command