Newmarket Craven meeting: day one

for many people the flat season proper begins today with the first day of the Craven Meeting at Newmarket. Last week´s Newbury meeting however was equally strong, but today we will undoubtedly see some top 3yo´s in action. You will look in vain for any older horses, as 7 of today´s 8 races are restricted to the classic generation, and the other at 15.20 CET is a 2yo race - in which we fancy Harry Hurricane (George Baker/ Fergal Sweeney) to avenge his narrow defeat by Flyball (Richard Hannon/ Ryan Moore) on 3 lbs better terms.
After last week´s amazing run of success for John Gosden´s 3yo´s. his runners will obviously be the centre of attention today, and we expect Provident Spirit (William Buick) and Munjaz (Paul Hanagan) to win the maiden races at 14.45 and 18.15 respectively. In fact the latter ois our best bet of the day and could even be the best horse running today, as he showed great promise in his 2 races in 2013 and as a son of Sea the Stars is expected to show huge improvement when upped in trip.
Today´s main feature is the Nell Gwyn Stakes over 7 furlongs at 17.05, one of the best 1,000 Guineas Trials and has a large and competitive field. 3 of these fillies ran in last October´s Marcel Boussac on Arc weekend, with Queen Catrine (Charlie Hills/ Jamie Spencer) 3rd, Sandiva (Richard Fahey/ Frankie Dettori) seventh and Majeyda (Charlie Appleby/ Silvestre de Sousa) 9th. The ground was very soft that day and it would be no surprise to see Sandiva come out on top on this much faster going. Appleby´s other runner Folk Melody (Mikael Barzalona), one of 3 unbeaten fillies, is also of interest although bred to be better over longer distances.
The most valuable event is the sales race over 6 furlongs at 15.55 and both Toofi (Roger Varian/ Andrea Atzeni) and the Godolphin filly Wedding Ring (Appleby/ Barzalona) won similar events over this CD last sutumn. The latter has also run two good races at Meydan this year, but generally speaking, fillies have a poor record in this race and so we prefer Toofi.
The Free Handicap over 7 furlongs at 16.30 looks very tricky and all 6 runners have a chance. Topweight Parbold (Fahey/ Jimmy Fortune) was only beaten two necks in the Gimcrack and is one of the more obvious candidates, but we also like the bottom-weight, the unbeaten Mushir (Varian/ Hanagan).
The listed Feilden Stakes ober 9 furlongs at 17.40 is always won by a good horse -last year Arc third Intello- and the one we like here is Irish raider Obliterator (Ger Lyons/ Spencer), winner of his only race in good style. The trainer is coming here as the going is too soft in Ireland and thinks a great deal of this colt.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Provident Spirit - Emirati Spirit - Master Of Suspense
2. Race: Flyball - Portamento - Harry Hurricane
3. Race: Wedding Ring - Toofi - One Chance
4. Race: Shifting Power - Mushir - Parbold
5. Race: Sandiva - Dorothy B - Folk Melody
6. Race: Obliterator - Somewhat - True Story
7. Race: Munjaz - Wahgah - Wrangler
8. Race: Kaab - Greeb - Quiet Warrior