Thursday, April 17, 2014

Newmarket Craven meeting: day two

The Craven meeting continues with another strong card, once again with 5 of the 8 races restricted to 3yo´s including the main event, the Craven Stakes over a mile at 17.05 CET. It is a long time since a runner here actually won the 2,000 Guineas, but today´s field includes at least one likely contender, Toormore (Richard Hannon/ Ryan Moore), currently third favourite for the classic after winning all his 3 starts last season. He is clear best on ratings and seems certain to start a very hot favourite, with the Hannon stable in good form (2 winners here yesterday)= and with an excellent record in this race. However it may not be as easy as it looks on paper - his stable companion Anjaal (Paul Hanagan) is also pretty useful, white the Godolphin runner Be Ready (Saeed bin Suroor/ Silvestre de Sousa) is highly rated and a big danger.
The other two group races are over 6 furlongs at 16.30 and over 9 at 17.40. In the former event we expect Aljamaaher (Roger Varian/ Hanagan) to win; he is clearly the best horse in the race, but has been mainly running over a mile. His team however seem convinced that this step down in trip could be the right move, and Dinkum Diamond (Henry Candy/ Oisin Murphy), who won a listed race over this distance last time looks the main danger. Over the longer trip we fancy the filly Just the Judge (Charlie Hills/ Jamie Spencer), who won the Irish 1,000 Guineas last season, the best form on offer. CD specialist Mull of Killlough (Jane Chapple-Hyam/ Adam Kirby), who won the race last year, should finish in the frame with Fencing (John Gosden/ William Buick) next best.
The most valuable race is the Tattersalls Millions 3yo Trophy over 10 furlongs at 15.55. Aidan O´Brien rarely has runners in these sales races (most of the inmates at Ballydoyle are Coolmore homebreds), but has a good chance here with Johann Strauss, runner-up in the Racing Post Trophy last autumn and certain to be suited by today´s distance. However this is quite an open race, and Seagull Star (William Haggas/ Graham Lee), the only unbeaten runner, Sudden Wonder (Charlie Appleby/ Mikael Barzalona) and Hunters Creek (Gosden/ Buick) must also be considered. However the Gosden/ Buick runners fare in these races, we expect their hot streak to continue and for them to take the last 2 races with Eastern Belle and Cloudscape.
The mile race for unraced 3yo´s at 15.20 is also of great interest with well-bred runners from top stables. The one that grabs us here is Basem (bin Suroor/ de Sousa), a fiull brother to Group One winner Farrh and out of the German Group One winner Gonbarda (by Lando).

Betting forecast:
1. Race: No Delusion - Lacing - Mary Mcphee
2. Race: Basem - Fallen In Line - Tabreek
3. Race: Johann Strauss - Sudden Wonder - Seagull Star
4. Race: Aljamaaheer - Hamza - Tropics
5. Race: Be Ready - Anjaal - The Grey Gatsby
6. Race: Just The Judge - Fencing - French Navy

7. Race: Hadaatha - Eastern Belle - Executrix
8. Race: Cloudscape - Volume - Top Tug