Friday, April 04, 2014

Aintree Grand National meeting: Ladies Day

the second day of the Grand National meeting is Ladies Day, which is about as far removed from the Royal Ascot version as can be imagined. Think Liverpudlian lasses in very short skirts and fake tan. From the punting point of view it is very tricky, even harder than yesterday with some huge fields; one thing we did learn yesterday however is that Cheltenham form is working out, and once again a huge numbers of runners are here who were last seen at the Festival. The smallrest field is ther BGrade One novice chase over 3 miles+ at 15.30 and all 6 runners here ran at Cheltenham. O´Faorlains Boy (Rebecca Curtis/ Barry Geraghty) won the RSA Chase over this distance there, where Just a Par (Paul Nicholls/ Nick Scholfield) was well beaten and German-bred Don Cossack (Gordon Elliott/ Davy Russell) fell, bringing down Many Clouds (Oliver Sherwood/ Leighton Aspell). Holywell (Jonjo O´Neill/ Tony McCoy) won a handicap there under a boig weight, while Nicholls´ other runner Wonderful Charm (Sam Twiston-Davies) ran well enough there over shorter and will be possibly better suited by today´s trip. Almost any of these could win now, but we tend towards Don Cossack, although Holywell is an obvious danger.
The Melling Chase over 2 1/2 miles at 16.05 is as open as any handicap. Rajdhani Express (Nicky Henderson/ Sam Waley-Cohen) finished third in the Ryanair and on that form holds Boston Bob (Willie Mullins/ Paul Townend) and Rathlin (Mouse Morris/ Brian O´Connell). Module was third in the Champion Chase with Wishfull Thinking (Philip Hobbs/ Richard Johnson) fifth, and both will be better suited by today´s longer trip, while Ballynagour (David Piper/ Tom Scudamore) and the mare Pepite Rose (Venetia Williams/ Aidan Coleman) were both easy winners of valuable handicaps last time and look well worth this step up in grade. We prefer Module but would not be surprised to see Wishfull Thinking, who always goes well here, run a big race.
The Grade One novice hurdle over 3 miles at 17.15 is another puzzle with 18 runners There could be a winner for a small stable here, as Seeyouatmidnight (AM Thomson/ Ryan Mania) hads won his last 4 races in promising style and stays really well. He is top-rated here, despite moving up in grade, and our selection, though we are frightened of lightly-raced Beat That (Henderson/ Geraghty)
Henderson and Geraghty also have good prospects in the opening novice hurdle over 2 miles at 15.00 with Josses Hill, runner-up at Cheltenham; German-bred Art of Payroll (Dessie Hughes/ Paul Carberry), whose team took yesterday´s opener, is one of several dangers.
The handicaps look brutal, with 30 runners in the Topham Chase at 16.40; we like Big Fella Thanks (Tom George/ Paddy Brennan), who has run several good races in the Grand National and whose team were also in the winner´s circle yesterday, while we will give another chance to German-bred Lyvius (Henderson/ Geraghty) at 17.50; he is a half-brother to German Derby winner Lucky Speed.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Josses Hill - Sgt Reckless - Art Of Payroll
2. Race: O`faolains Boy - Wonderful Charm - Holywell
3. Race: Module - Rajdhani Express - Ballynagour

4. Race: Double Ross - Standing Ovation - Lost Legend
5. Race: Seeyouatmidnight - Toubeera - Tagrita
6. Race: Caid Du Berlais - Zabana - Stonebrook

7. Race: Tara Mist - The Govaness - Oleohneh