Aintree Grand National meeting: day one

the Grand National meeting starts today with an excellent card. There was a time when this was only a one trick pony, but those days are long gone, and this meeting is now only behind Cheltenham in the British N.H. calendar. In fact quite a large number of today´s runners were last seem at Cheltenham 3 weeks ago. Experience has shown that one should be a bit wary of the Cheltenham form here; not only is the track totally different, but the hard races at the Festival often leave their mark.
This however does not apply in our view to The New One (Nigel and Sam Twiston-Davies), a most unlucky third in the Champion Hurdle, who should gain recompense in the Aintree Hurdle at 16.05 CET. This longer distance should suit him and he was in fact runner-up here last year. Rock on Ruby (Harry Fry/ Noel Fehily) and Grandouet (Nicky Henderson/ Barry Geraghty) both revert to hurdles arter flopping over fences at Cheltenham; of these we clearly prefer the former, the 2012 Champion, but will be very surprised if he can beat The New Man.
The card opens with the Grade One 4yo hurdle at 15.00. Quite a few of these ran either in the Triumph or the Fred Winter at Cheltenham, but we shall go for two lightly-raced types who missed the Festival: Activial /Fry/ Fehily) and Fox Norton (Nick Williams/ Richard Johnson). The latter, a son of Lando, beat German-bred Broughton (John Ferguson/ Tony McCoy) in December and that form reads well, while Activial, though defeated on jhis debut by the Triumoh Hurdle fourth Calipto (Paul Nicholls/ Twiston-Davies), won the Adonis Hurdle in good style next time out.
The Betfred Bowl Chase over an extended 3 miles at 15.30 has a strong field including the first 3 from last year: First Lieutenant (Mouse Morris/ Barry Geraghty), Menorah (Philip Hobbs/ Johnson) and Silviniani Conti (Nicholls/ Fehily). The last-named went on to win the King George which gives him a good chance here; however he had a very hard race at Cheltenham, when he was 4th in the Gold Cup after leading at the last. First Lieutenant missed Cheltenham, which is an advantage and this better ground will be ideal, but the one to beat is surely Dynaste (David Pipe/ Tom Scudamore); although well behind Silviniano Conto in the King George, he was impressive when winning the Ryanair.
There are only 5 runners in the novice chase at 17.50 but it still looks very tricky. Western Warhorse (Pipe/ Scu) showed an excellent turn of foot to win the Arkle, with Dodging Bullets (Nicholls/ Twiston-Davies) not far back in 5th.That was over half a mjile shorter but we expect the form to be confirmed; Uxizandre (Alan King/ McCoy) was runner-up over today´s distance at Cheltenham, where the fancied Oscar Whisky (Henderson/ Geraghty) fell. Fox Appeal (Emma Lavelle/ Aidan Coleman) is also not out of it, and any of the 5 could win, but we narrowly prefer Western Warhorse.
The Fox Hunter at 16.40, over the last 2 3/4 miles of the National course, has a huge field, but in our view it is a two horse race; the Irish runners Mossey Joe (Enda Bolger/ Damien Skehan), easily the best on ratings, and Warne (BR Hamilton/ Sam Waley-Cohen), 4th last year but who put up a very good performance last time, should dominate here.
The two handicaps with large fields are wide open and anything could happen; our two against the field are top-weight and 2013 winner Oiseau de Nuit (Colin Tizzard/ Brendan Powell) and Last Shot (Venetia Williams/ Liam Treadwell) at 17.15, and Busty Brown (Noel Meade/ Paul Carberry) and German-bred Big Easy (Hobbs/ Michael Nolan) at 18.25.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Calipto - Guitar Pete - Activial
2. Race: Dynaste - Silviniaco Conti - First Lieutenant
3. Race: Rock On Ruby - Diakali - Grandouet
4. Race: Mossey Joe - Warne - Supreme Doc
5. Race: Claret Cloak - Sound Investment - Arnaud
6. Race: Western Warhorse - Oscar Whisky - Uxizandre
7. Race: Riverside Theatre - Doctor Harper - Cantlow