Grand National at Aintree today

The Grand National, to be run over 4 1/2 miles at 17.15 CET at Aintree this afternoon, is the best-known race in the U.K. -probably the world- andf the one that attracts the biggest betting. It is a handicap and therefore by no meamns the best race - the Gold Cup at Cheltenham is clearly top in that regard - but the class of the race has been much improved since the fences were made easier to jump and the huge prize-money (561,000 GBP to the winner) has attracted a very strong field with year with the usual maximum of 40 runners.

There will be some jockey changes as several jockeys took nasty falls yesterday; Mikey Fogarty, due to ride Willie Mullins´ Vesper Bell, is definitely out of action, and there are slight doubts about Paul Carberry, Noel Fehily and Andrew Tinkler as well; obviousy we hope that they are all o.k. to ride. The track was watered yresterday and the going is good to soft, although with .light rain expected most of today, it might well ride softer by the off.

Basically, all 40 are conceivable winners, but the two classiest runners are also the two best-handicapped: Tidal Bay (Paul Nicholls/ Sam Twiston-Davies) and Long Run (Nicky Henderson/ Sam Waley-Cohen). They represent the top two British trainers, and this race will decide the trainers´ champiponship for the season, with Nicholls still leading. He has 3 runners in the field and Henderson 4. The above-mentioned pair also have the highest weights, and it is rare for a horse weighted above 11 stone to win, but we still fancy Tidal Bay, at 13 one of our favourite horses. He still has lots of speed at the business end of the race and we can easily see him winning if he is within 5 lengths of the leader at the last. We don´t really fancy Long Run, who seems to have deteriorated since his glory days. when he won the Gold Cup and the King George twice, but it is a brave decision to run here and his jockey -also the owner´ son- talked up his chances on TV yesterday.

Henderson and Nicholls also fancied runners in Triolo d´Alene (Geraghty) and Rocky Creek (Fehily, if fit) respectively, winner and runner-up in the Hennessy last November; with the latter now 5 lbs better off, there is little between them. The former also ran in the Gold Cup, and finished well beaten, behind Teaforthree (Rebecca Curtis/ Nick Scholfield), who ran second in last year´s National (several of today´s runners well behind or pulled up) and is the logical choice here, if there can be such a thing in this race.

Other horses that have been heavily supported are Double Seven (Martin Brassil/ Tony McCoy) and Monbeg Dude (Michael Scudamore/ Paul Carberry, if fit), who won the Welsh Grand National last year and is part-owned by Rugby star Mike Tindall, husband of the Queen´s granddaughter Zara Phillips.The latest Welsh National was won by Mountainous (Richard Lee/ Jamie Moore), who beat Hawkes Point (Nicholls/ Ryan Mahon) and Tidal Bay in a very close finish, but both are handicapped to beat him now.

Best of the light weights in our view is The Package (David Pipe/ Tom Scudamore), who was 3rd of 23 at Cheltenham; both of the horses in front of him won in good style yesterday, giving that form a huge boost. We have only mentioned 10 of the 40 runners, and any of the other 30 could easily win, but we hope that we are on the right track, and make our 3 against the field: Teaforthree, Tidal Bay and The Package. However the most potent force in the race is Lady Luck and anything can happen.

later: Katie Walsh rides Vesper Bell

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Sea Lord - Volnay De Thaix - Wilde Blue Yonder
2. Race: Trifolium - Hinterland - Balder Succes
3. Race: At Fishers Cross - Zarkandar - Melodic Rendezvous
4. Race: Unioniste - Victor Hewgo - Gullinbursti
5. Race: Teaforthree - Monbeg Dude - Long Run
6. Race: Somethingwonderful - Drumlee - Katgary
7. Race: Bringithomeminty - Modus - Our Kaempfer