Cheltenham Gold Cup

the Cheltenham Gold Cup, to be run today over 3 1/4 miles at 16.20 CET is by far the most important jumps race of the season and with 14 runners has a field well up to standard. It is headed by Bobs Worth (Nicky Henderson/ Barry Geraghty), who won it last year and is unbeaten in 3 starts here, having also won at the two previous Festivals. He is the clear form choice and we expect him to win. Although he flopped on his only U.K. start since, his Irish win last time from First Lieutenant (Mouse Morris/ David Casey) was convincing enough, and we see no reason why those that finished behind them should now reverse the form over a course and distance that is obviously ideal.
Silviniano Conti (Paul Nicholls/ Noel Fehily) looks the main danger. He was going well when falling 3 out last year - though we don´t believe that he would have won- and has since taken the King George. However there is a big difference between 3 miles round Kempton and 3 1/4 here and we are also worried by the relatively poor form of the Nicholls runners this week.
First Lieutenant is most consistent and should be placed again, although this trip is his absolute limit. However he was well brearen last time by ther same owner´s Last Instalment (Philip Fenton/ Brian O´Connell) in the Irish Hennessy, with Lyreen Legend (Dessie Hughes/ Paul Carberry) fifth and Lord Windermere (Jim Culloty/ Davy Russell) sixth. That was probably the best Irish form and Last Instalment, about whom there were ground worries, has been confirmed as a definite runner. However we would not be surprised to see Lord Windermere come out best of these; he won at the Festival last year and his trainer (who won the Gold Ciup as a jockey 3 times on Best Mate, the last horse to win the race back-to-back) had a good winner here yesterday.
Nicky Henderson has a second string to his bow in Triolo D´Alene (Tony McCoy), who won the English Hennessy, a race taken by Bobs Worth last year. However he will need to improve quite a bit to beat his stable companion and his main target is in any case the Grand National, a race for which On His Way (Willie Mullins/ Ruby Walsh) and Teaforthree (Rebecca Curtis/ Nick Scholfield) are also under orders.
German-bred The Giant Bolster (David Bridgwater/ Tom Scudamore) is an interesting contender and is an absolute CD specialist. He won the main trial for this, finished 4th last year and runner-up the year before, so can obviously run into a place again. However we do not believe that he has the class to win and probably needs softer ground as well.
Our selection therefore is Bobs Worth to win with Lord Windermere the best outsider.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Calipto - Broughton - Tiger Roll
2. Race: Arctic Fire - Lac Fontana - Minella Foru
3. Race: Briar Hill - Kings Palace - Captain Cutter
4. Race: Bobs Worth - Silviniaco Conti - Last Instalment
5. Race: On The Fringe - Harbour Court - Tammys Hill
6. Race: Vieux Lion Rouge - Caid Du Berlais - Full Shift
7. Race: Mr Mole - Next Sensation - Ned Buntline