Friday, March 14, 2014

rest of Cheltenham

once more, high class and very competive fields starting with the Triumph Hurdle for 4yo´s at 14.30 CET. This race used to be known as the punters´ graveyard, but in fact in recent years it has almost always been won by a fancied horse from a top stable. Calipto (Paul Nicholls/ Daryl Jacob) is the favoiurite here, having won bith his starts in good style and the form has worked out well; however we are worried by the form of the stable, so take Broughton (John Ferguson/ Denis O´Regan) and Royal Irish Hussar (Nicky Henderson/ Barry Geraghty) instead. We arre not convinced by the Irsh 4yo´s, of whom Tiger Roll (Gordon Elliott/ Davy Russell) may come out on top. Broughton incidentally was bought by Ferguson for the Maktoum family at Baden-Baden, and he has ended up training the horse himself over hurdles after he showed useful form for Mark Johnston on the flat.
The other Grade One is the Albert Bartlett novice hurdle over 3 miles at 15.40 and the betting suggests tnat this is a two-horse race, with Brisr Hill (Willie Mullins/ Ruby Walsh) for Ireland and Kings Palace (David Pipe/ Tom Scudamore) for England. The latter has won his last 3 races in great style including this CD twice, while the Irish challenger is unbeaten in 6 starts,including the Champion Bumper here, but has never run beyond 2 1/2 miles. These two will probably dominate, but we cannot resist a tiny bet at huge odds on Prince Siegfried (Ferguson/ O´Regan), who was easily the best of these on the flat but is also stepping up in distance. The Foxhunter at 17.00 also looks a two-horse-race, between English hope Harbour Court (Alan Hill/ John Tudor) and Irish challenger On The Fringe (Enda Bolger/ Nina Carberry).
Today´s 3 handicaps, all with 24 runners, are of course ferociously difficult. We take 3 against the field in each: Gertman-bred Arctic Fire (Mullins/ Walsh), Cheltenian (Philip Hobbs/ Richard Johnson) and Alaivan (Jonjo O´Neill/ Maurice Lineham) at 15.05; another German-bred Local Hero (Steve Gollings/ Patrick Bohan), Vieux Lion Rouge (Pipe/ Tom Bellamy) and Full Tilt (Henderson/ Nico de Boinville) at 17.40; and Tanks for That (Henderson/ Geraghty), Claret Cloak (Emma Lavelle/ Fehily) and Changing the Guard (Dr. Newland/ Wayne Hutchinson) in the final race of the meeting at 18.15.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Calipto - Broughton - Tiger Roll
2. Race: Arctic Fire - Lac Fontana - Minella Foru
3. Race: Briar Hill - Kings Palace - Captain Cutter
4. Race: Bobs Worth - Silviniaco Conti - Last Instalment

5. Race: On The Fringe - Harbour Court - Tammys Hill
6. Race: Vieux Lion Rouge - Caid Du Berlais - Full Shift
7. Race: Mr Mole - Next Sensation - Ned Buntline