Friday, February 28, 2014

Doncaster and Newbury

both Doncaster and Newbury stage strong cards tomorrow, but today´s races are very feeble by comparison and Newbury in addition suffers from heavy going and small fields. The only race there with normal each-eay betting is the novice hurdle at 15.20 CET. Boogie in the Barn (Jeremy Scott/ Nick Scholfield) won in excellent style on his hurdling debut and can hold the other previous winner Pink Gin (Jim Old/ Micky Grant), but we doubt that they can concede 6 lbs to Big Hands Harry (Nicky Henderson/ Barry Geraghty), who made a very encouraging debut behind a stable companion who went on to win a graded race. Henderson and Geraghty can also take the bumper at 18.10 with No Pushover, while the jockey can have a third winner on Rebecca Curtis´ Minella Reception, who can confirm his narrow victory over Daveron (Scott/ Scholfield) at 17.00.
The ground is much better at Doncaster, although there are some small fields as well, and Henderson can be on the scorecard here with Free Thinking (Sam Waley-Cohen) at 15.40 and Sign of a Victory (Jerry McGrath) at 16.10. The danger here could be German-bred Verano (Charlie Mann/ Gavin Sheehan), who is making his N.H. debut here but won 2 races on the flat in Germany in 2012. Another ex-German runner that catches the eye is Lysino (Chris Grant/ Keith Renwick) in the opening novices handicap hurdle at 15.10. We remember this one winning at Munich in May 2012 and it is hard to believe that he has consistently flopped ever since, both on the flat in Germany and over hurdles in the U.K. He is a half-brother to ther useful hurdlers Lyssio and Livius as well as German Derby winner Lucky Speed, but clearly has very little of their ability. However this is a very weak race, the better going will suit him, and his third last form gives him a good chance, while we shall ignore his two latest poor runs on heavy. He is our each-way bet of the day.

Betting forecast Newbury:
1. Race: Stiff Upper Lip - Ninepointsixthree - Cherry Tiger
2. Race: Big Hands Harry - Pink Gin - Boogie In The Barn
3. Race: Stone Light - Sir Valentino - Umberto d`Olivate
4. Race: Farbreaga - Ultimatum Du Roy - Pistol
5. Race: Minella Reception - Daveron - Rior
6. Race: Bincombe - Be Definite - Proud Times
7. Race: Etheridge Annie - Tyre Hill Lady - Izzy Piccolina