Saturday, March 01, 2014

Good handicaps are today´s feature races

Handicaps are the top races today and most of the top stables are well represented while the stars are being prepared for Cheltenham (starts in 10 days!). The Grimthorpe Chase over 3 1/4 miles at 16.30 CET at Doncaster is the most valuable event and several of the runners are likely to be seen next in the Grand National. With 12 runners this is wide open and Paul Nicholls has a strong hand with Mon Parrain (Daryl Jacob) and the lightly-weighted Harry the Viking (Nick Scholfield), who has a good record here. Both should go well, but we slightly prefer Court By Surprise (Emma Lavelle/ Barry Geraghty), who is not especially well handicapped but will be well suited by the good ground and has one of our favourite jockeys on board. In fact Geraghty looks the man to follow here, as he can also score twice for his boss Nicky Henderson on Mayfair Music at 15.20 and Tistory at 17.40, both lightly-raced but very promising novices who have also been waiting for better ground. We also like Geraghty´s Mount Lidar (Alan King) at 15.55, although top-weight Simply Ned (Nicky Richards/ Brian Harding) looks the one to beat here. German-bred Dawn Commander (Pauline Robeson/ Josh Moore) has improved and was a good winner of a jumpers bumper last time; he can now score over hurdles at 17.05.

Another possible German-bred winner today could be Seventh Sky (Charlie Mann/ Noel Fehily), a half-brother to Samum, at 16.15 at Newbury. He does not win vey often but is nicely handicapped and the heavy ground here is right up his street. The same goes for Carruthers (Mark Bradstock/ Nico de Boinville), who has top-weight in the veterans chase at 15.40. He won the Hennessy over this CD in 2011, ran really well on his only start this season and should outclass today´s opposition. The Grade Three handicap chase over 2 1/2 miles at 16.50 looks tricky, with both Paul Nicholls and Venetia Williams saddling two runners. However we shall take a chance on Majala (Tom George/ Paddy Brennan), whose recent form is poor but has come down a lot in the weights as a result.

The Grade Two novoice hurdle at Kelso at 16.05 is theoretically the top race of the day, but to be honest, these runners are well below the normal standard and again one wonders about the point of such races just before Cheltenham. Clever Cookie (Peter Niven/ Wilson Renwick - if he has recovered) has the best form, but we are not sure that he can concede weight to Franciscan (Donald McCain/ Jason Maguire) and especially Secrete Stream (Malcolm Jefferson/ Brian Hughes), who is our selection. The listed chase at 17.15 has only 5 runners and looks between German-bred Kruzhilin (McCain/ Maguire), who is 3 from 3 here, and Mr. Moonshine (Sue Smith/ Ryan Mania), who is going for a hat-trick.

The best flat race in the U.K. is the 5 furlongs handicap at 17.00 at Lingfield. Robert Cowell does well in these events and his two runners Silken Express (Adam Kirby) and Ubetterbegood (Jimmy Quinn), 2nd and 4th in a similar event at Wolverhampton a fortnight ago, should both be in the money again. However there is much better racing in Dubai, and the Nad Al Sheba Trophy over1 3/4 miles at 18.10 is a prep race for the Dubai Gold Cup., won last year by Cavalryman (Saeed bin Suroor/ Silvestre de Sousa). He should go well again, although he faces strong opposition from the Irish-trained Simenon (Willie Mullins/ Ryan Moore) and Saddlers Rock (John Oxx/ Declan McDonogh).

Doncaster - betting forecast:
1. Race: Victor Hewgo - Cowards Close - My Dads Horse
2. Race: Layla Joan - Toubeera - Mayfair Music
3. Race: Simply Ned - Lucky Landing - Turn Over Sivola
4. Race: Court By Surprise - Monbeg Dude - Golden Call
5. Race: Hartforth - Ampleforth - Drop Out Joe
6. Race: Tistory - Minella Friend - I Got Power
7. Race: Shout It Aloud - Mike Mccann - Vinnie Red