Wednesday, January 15, 2014

Newbury and Newcastle

two N.H. meetings today - as well as the usual low level all-weather racing this afternoon at Lingfield and this evening at Kempton - and Newbury at least promises some interesting racing. Nicky Henderson has his hurdlers in good form and can take the opening race for 4yo´s at 13.50 CET with Dawalan (Barry Geraghty), who made an excellent debut over this CD a month ago. He also has a good chance with Full Shift (Tony McCoy) in the novice hurdle at 14.50, who has won his only race over the sticks, but here we just prefer Brother Brian (Hughie Morrison/ Tom O´Brien), who won over this CD last time. The novice chase at 14.20 only has 5 runners and looks a match between German-bred Dark Lover (Paul Nicholls/ Daryl Jacob) and Brick Red (Venetia Williams/ Aidan Coleman). The best betting race here is the 3 mile handicap chase at 15.25; recent winners Railway Dillon (Donald McCain/ Jason Maguire) and Financial Climate (Oliver Sherwood/ Thomas Garner) are certainly not out of it despite a rise in the ratings, but we shall give another chance to Restless Harry (Robin Dickin/ Charlie Poste), who has unseated his rider the last twice (fancied by us both times). We are hoping for third time lucky today.
The card at Newcastle is not nearly as good, and the heavy ground will make things very testing in the 3 miles handicap chase at 15.45. Tutchec (Nicky Richards/ Brian Harding) has won his last 3 races, but they were all at Carlisle, all on better ground and all over shorter distances, and as the handicapper has put him up 26 lbs we shall look elsewhere, finally deciding on Rolecarr (Mrs Hamilton/ Graham Watters), who was runner-up over this CD 11 days ago. A German-bred who has caught our eye is Ortolan (Donald McCain/ Henry Brooke), who has not run for nearly 4 years, but faces only modest opposition at 13.40; he is by Next Desert out of a Monsun mare so should have no problems with the going. Sphinx (Edwin Tuer/ Tony Kelly) is at 16 one of the oldest horses in training, bjut is weighted to win the handicap hurdle at 16.20. Another longshot we like is Cop Hill (Tracy Waggott Dougie Costello) at 14.40.


Betting forecast:
1. Race: Prince Khurram - Interior Minister - Carry On Sydney
2. Race: Brick Red - Festive Affair - Merchant Of Milan
3. Race: Full Shift - Brother Brian - Cole Harden
4. Race: Financial Climate - Tullyraine - Railway Dillon
5. Race: Baby Shine - Miss Milborne - Definite Memories
6. Race: Diaktoros - Palermo Don - Pitter Patter
7. Race: Bold Addition - Foundry Square - Ninetieth Minute