Newbury: Hennessy Meeting starts today

the 3-day Hennessy meeting at Newbury starts today with a good card and competitive racing. Main event is the Grade Two novice chase over 3 miles at 15.05 CET, with only 5 runners, but some possible future stars, notably Third Intention (Colin and Joe Tizzard) and Just A Par (Paul Nicholls/ Daryl Jacob). The former has some smart form both over hurdles and fences to his credit; he never runs a bad race but must give 5 lbs to the Nicholls runner, who is less exposed and regarded as a major prospect. Over hurdles he was runner-up to At Fishers Cross at the Grand National Meeting, and he ran a decent race behind Shotgun Paddy on his chasing debut a month ago. This pair should have the race to themselves and the weight concession may just swing it for Just A Par.

The listed handicap hurdle over 2 miles at 16.15 is another good race. Chatterbox (Nicky Henderson/ Barry Geraghty) is the likely favourite; he has won 3 of his 4 races and has huge potential, but in view of the in-and-out stable form, we are a bit sceptical. We are also not convinced by the two 4yo´s in the field, Irish Saint (Nicholls/ Jacob) and Chris Pea Green (Gary and Joshua Moore), despite their strong claims on form. Top-weight Puffin Billy (Oliver Sherwood/ Leighton Aspell) is a classy performer who has fully earned his rating and must be respected, but at these weights the two we like best are Ifandbutwhynot (David O´Meara/ Timmy Murphy) and especially the totally unexposed Get Back In Line (Jonjo O´Neill/ Richie McLernon). The latter´s February win at Catterick, on only his second career start, has worked out well and it is quite likely that he is far better than his current rating of 127. He has not run since, but the stable is in good form so that should be no problem.
Despite our slight misgivings about Henderson´s stable form, it is hard to imagine his Volnay de Thaix getting beaten in the opening novice hurdle at 13.25, but he will be at long odds-on. A better betting heat is the novices handicap hurdle at 14.30. German-bred Swinging Hawk (Ian Williams/ Robert McCarth) did us a good turn when winning at Warwick last week and we hope that he can follow up, even though in theory runner-up Presence Felt (O´Neill/ McLernon) should reverse the form on these terms, while Andy Kelly (Emma Lavelle/ Gavin Sheehan) looks a big danger.

Despite the strong card at Newbury, some leading jockeys run elsewhere and punters are advised to watch closely Tony McCoy´s rides at Uttoxeter and Richard Johnson´s at Taunton. Meanwhile Ruby Walsh stays at home and should be among the winners at the Irish meeting at Thurles. His most interesting ride there is Rubi Ball in the 2 3/4 mile hurdle race at 15.45. Previously a top staying chaser in France, the son of Network is having his first run for Willie Mullins here. He gets 10 lbs from his only serious opponent Foildubh (John Ryan/ Paul Carberry) and ought to win easily.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Pelmanism - Peak Storm - The Master Remover
2. Race: Polisky - Susquehanna River - Top Dancer
3. Race: Andy Kelly - Broomfield - Jojabean
4. Race: Third Intention - Just A Par - Ardkilly Witness
5. Race: Easter Day - Whats Happening - Grandads Horse
6. Race: Chatterbox - Irish Saint - Puffin Billy
7. Race: Red Devil Lads - Maestro Royal - Thomas Brown