Friday, November 29, 2013

Newbury: Hennessy Meeting second day

the really big races are tomorrow, but today´s Newbury card is still very decent, with the Grade Two Berkshire Novice Chase over 2 1/2 miles at 15.05 CET the main feature. Unfortunately there are only 4 runners, so there could be a false-run race, but we expect Wonderful Charm (Paul Nicholls/ Daryl Jacob) to win with authority. He was the best of these over hurdles and has already shown that he is just as good - if not better- over fences. Tanerko Emery (David Pipe/ Conor O´Farrell) was not far behind him on hurdles ratings, but makes his chasing debut here, so we easily prefer the Nicholls runner, whose trainer and jockey won two races here yesterday.

Nicholls could be in for a good afternoon, as he has several fancued runners and we expect Calipto (Jacob) to take opening 3yo hurdle, although he is no good thing as most of his opponents are making their debuts here and could be anything; however he ran well on his own debut -in a good race at Auteuil two months ago- and that is clearly the best public form in the race. Nicholls and Jacob can also take the maiden hurdle at 16.45 with Fascino Rustico, who last ran in the Cheltenham Champion Bumper, a race that has worked out very well.

Nicholls has 2 runners in the 2 1/2 mile handicap chase at 15.40, with Jacobs partnering Cedre Bleu, down in distance, but we prefer the two bottom-weights here, Niceonefrankie (Venetia Williams/ Aidan Coleman), penalised 6 lbs for winning at Ascot last week, and Theatrical Star (Colin and Joe Tizzard). The big betting race here is the 3 mile handicap hurdle at 14.30 with 21 runners, plenty with good form. German-bred Dawn Twister (Lucy Wadham/ Noel Fehily) stays well and is not without a chance, but our main hope is Chiberta King (Andrew Balding/ Tom O´Brien); Balding does well with his few jumpers, and this one - a top stayer on the flat, winner at Royal Ascot and last time out 4th in the Cesarewitch - has also won over hurdles here and could be very nicely handicapped.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Dawalan - Calipto - Chocala
2. Race: Definite Dream - Highway Code - Majorica King
3. Race: Free To Dream - Western Warhorse - Chiberta King
4. Race: Wonderful Charm - Up To Something - Tanerko Emery
5. Race: Grandioso - Easter Meteor - Niceonefrankie
6. Race: Fabrika - Toubeera - Tagrita
7. Race: Fascino Rustico - Sign Of A Victory - Tiqris