Saturday, November 09, 2013

Final day of flat season

Today marks the final day of the flat season (at least on turf) for 2013 in the U.K. and Ireland with a huge card at Doncaster, 8 races and large and competitve fields in all of them. It could be a big day for Newmarket trainer William Haggas, who can take the two 2yo maidens that start the card with Resolute (Seb Sanders) at 13.05 CET and Penny Drops (Paul Hanagan) at 13.40 and also has the likely favourite in the big betting race of the day, the November Handicap over 1 1/2 miles at 16.35 with Conduct (Sanders). Witzh 23 runners, this is however extremely open. John Gosden has a good record here and now saddles the two top-weights Aiken (William Buick) and Lahaag (Hanagan); Aiken would win this on his 2012 form, but has been very diappointing this year and we do not believe first-time blinkers will make much difference. Lahaag won a similar race at York a month ago, but several of those who finished close behind him now meet him on better terms. Nearly Caught (Hughie Morrison/ Richard Hughes) ran well in France last time but has a huge weight for a 3yo. We prefer stable companion Cousin Khee (Martin Lane), who could run well at a big price, but also like Communicator (Andrew Balding/ David Probert), who was runner-up here last year and is now 3 lbs lower.

Also on the card are two listed races and from the German point of view the 6 furlongs race at 15.25 where Dominik Moser saddles two runners, both fillies, Amelie Beat (Tom Queally) and Gracia Directa (Robert Winston). The former won at Baden-Baden last time, but that was a moderate handicap and we cannot believe that she has a chance in this company. However Gracia Directa has some good form to her credit and has run several good races in England; she can certainly finish in the money. The ones to beat are Highland Colori (Balding/ Probert), Spinatrix (Michael Dods/ Connor Beasley) and, despite the big weight, Jack Dexter (Jim Goldie/ Graham Lee). The fillies listed race over 10 furlongs at 16.00 is as open as any handicap; our 3 against the field are Cocktail Queen (David Elsworth/ Richard Hughes), Princess Loulou (Roger Varian/ Andrea Atzeni) and Romantic Settings (Richard Fahey/ Tony Hamilton).

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Jazz - Resolute - Almax
2. Race: Majorities - Go Sakhee - Indy
3. Race: Black Caesar - Upholland - Penina
4. Race: Magistral - Favourite Treat - Showboating
5. Race: Jack Dexter - Highland Colori - Eton Rifles
6. Race: Cushion - Prussian - Cocktail Queen
7. Race: Conduct - Lahaag - Border Legend
8. Race: Falcon`s Reign - Piceno - Pashan Garh