Friday, November 08, 2013

good hurdlers at Musselburgh

5 meetings today, with Hexham, Musselburgh and Southwell all over jumps this afternoon, and flat racing at Wolverhampton and Dundalk this evening. Easily the best card is at Musselburgh and the Scottish track stages two good handicap hurdles, over 2 miles at 15.35 and over 3 miles half an hour later, with runners from all over Britain. Both look very competitive, but we think the former race can be narrowed down to Population (John Ferguson/ Denis O´Regan) and Willows Saviour (Dan and Harry Skelton). Skelton senior was previously with Paul Nicholls and has made a good start to his career as his own boss, with Willows Saviour winning easily at Ascot last week. He has a 6 lbs penalty for that but won with much more in hand. However Population, who had good bumper form but has not yet shone over hurdles, could well be thrown in off this rating and is a huge danger. Runswick Royal (Mrs. Hamilton/ Keith Renwick) is the class act here after finishing runner-up in an Aintree Grade One in April, but we cannot see him conceding so much weight to thee two selections. In the staying race we have to stick with our old friend, German-bred Los Nadis (Jim Goldie/ Henry Brooke), who likes this track and has been dropped in the weights. If all 8 run, he looks a good each-way bet at the likely prices. Another one who now has a lenient rating is Aikman (James Ewart/ Brian Hughes); despite coming off a long break and top weight in the 2 1/2 mile handicap chase at 16.35 he has an excellent chance on his old form and the stable won here yesterday.
There are small fields at Southwell, with normal each-way betting only possible in the bumper at 16.45. This could be the most interesting race here and several top stables have runners, with Tony McCoy coming here for his only ride of the day on Jonjo O´Neill´s Forthefunofit.
The going will be very soft at Hexham, which should suit Ancient Times (Philip Kirby/ Kyle James) in the handicap hurdle at 15.25; he loves this ground and his early summer form on faster going can probably be ignored.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Purple Bay - Memory Cloth - Biggar
2. Race: Franciscan - Pulpitarian - Clever Cookie
3. Race: Desgrey - Twill Stand To Us - Knockturnal
4. Race: Robbie - Katys Girl - Robbie
5. Race: Willow`S Saviour - Population - Runswick Royal
6. Race: So Fine - Capellanus - Marmas
7. Race: Aikman - Strobe - Quito Du Tresor
8. Race: Ronnie Lawson - It`s High Time - Theatrical Style