Tuesday, October 22, 2013

only 3 in main event

the most interesting race today is the beginners chase over 3 miles at 15.40 CET at Exeter, but only for future reference - for betting purposes it should be left alone with only 3 runners. All 3 have great potential, but Sonofvic (Paul Nicholls/ Daryl Jacob) is the only one actually to have run over fences - and that was 2 years ago. He has now been off the track since falling (over hurdles) at the 2012 Cheltenham Festival. Kentford Grey Lady (Emma Lavelle/ Noel Fehily) ran a really good race at that meeting, when runner-up to Quevega in the mares hurdle, and she has arguably the best hurdles form but is making her chase debut here. Rendi Beach (Rebecca Curtis/ Tony McCoy) twice flopped at odds-on last winter, but had earlier shown great promise when winning 2 bumpers and his first race over sticks. A better betting race is the handicap hurdle at 17.10, in which we go for Amok (Tim Vaughan/ Richard Johnson), but the Shirocco gelding is having his first run since February; top-weight Surf and Turf (Jonjo O´Neill/ McCoy) is an obvious threat, although he is running for ther first time over hurdles for 2 years, but he has been in good form over fences.
The only flat racing on turf is at Yarmouth, but although most of the top jockeys are there, the standard of racing is low and plenty of non-runners make tipping difficult. Chooseday (Kevin Ryan/ Graham Lee) has been very disapppointing recently but has been dropped in the weights and is now down in grade in the 6 furlongs handicap at 16.50; we shall give him another chance in a very open race. This event could be dominated by the top-weights, as Green Howard (Robin Bastiman( Jason Hart) and Gatepost (Richard Fahey/ Paul Hanagan), penalised for winning last week at Windsor, look the main dangers.

Betting forecast Exeter:
1. Race: Lumpys Gold - Un Ami - Hare In A Round
2. Race: Kentford Grey Lady - Sonofvic - Rendl Beach
3. Race: Horizontal Speed - Minella Friend - Brinestine
4. Race: Red Riverman - Annacotty - Funny Star
5. Race: Amok - Surf And Turf - Ullswater
6. Race: The Potting Shed - Milarrow - Bendant
7. Race: Leviche - Henri De Boistron - Ceevee