Wednesday, October 23, 2013

2yo´s at Newmarket

after more rain last night, the going today will be soft everywhere and punters should bear this on mind.
2yo races dominate the card at Newmarket, with 5 of the 6 races restricted to this age group. There are some extremely well-bred and expensive purchases making their debut here, e.g. Naadirr (Marco Botti/ Martin Harley) who cost 425,000 guineas and runs at 16.05 CET and Danjeu (John Gosden/ William Buick), 725,000, at 17.10, but with so little form to go on, these races should be watched for future reference only. For betting purposes, the fillies handicap over a mile at 17.45, the only race for older runners, is of more interest. Galician (Mark Johnston/ Joe Fanning), fourth in a listed race at Cologne last time, has top weight, but we got the Impression that she is getting a bit tired, and prefer the lightly-raced bottom-weight Cosseted (James Fanshawe/ Andrea Atzeni), who is up in grade but being a daughter of Pivotal should enjoy the ground.
There is also flat racing in Ireland at Navan. with 4 races for 2yo´s on the card. Belisaurius (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien) was beaten at odds-on over this CD a fortnight ago but could recover those losses today, and this opposition does not look quite so strong.
They go over jumps at Worcester and Fontwell. At the former track, the most interesting event is the handicap chase over 2 miles 7 furlongs at 15.40. Strangely enough, several of the leading candidates are making their chasing debut. Big Society (Tom George/ Paddy Brennan) was a smart novice hurdler, while Trafalgar (Nigel and Sam Twiston-Davies) was very promising but has been off the track for almost 2 years. At these weights we prefer Spanish Arch (Charlie Longsdon/ Kielan Woods), who might turn out to be useful over fences and represents a yard in red-hot form.
At Fontwell we like Regal Park (Gary and Joshua Moore) in the opening handicap hurdle for conditional jockeys. He has so far shown very little over hurdles, but he had useful form on the flat on soft ground and this race looks very weak.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Fray - Eastern Belle - Saltwater Creek
2. Race: Mutakayyef - Naadirr - Pretzel
3. Race: Cape Wrath - Sudden Wonder - Noble Metal
4. Race: Munjaz - Touch The Sky - Danjeu
5. Race: Maid A Million - Deglet Noor - Narmin
6. Race: Anglophile - Devilment - Alisios