Thursday, August 22, 2013

Yorkshire Oaks today

today is Ladies Day at York with 4 of the 6 races confined to fillies. including the main event, the Group One Yorkshire Oaks over 1 1/2 miles at 16.40 CET. There are 4 3yo´s in the field opposed by 4 older fillies and it looks quite open.
The Irish tok the first two places in yesterday s big rasce here and will be aiming to dfo the same with Venus de MIlo (Aidan O´Brien/ Ryan Moore) and Scintillula (Jim Bolger/ Kevin Manning), second and fourth respectively in the Irish Oaks, when Riposte (Lady Cecil/ Richard Hughes) started favourite but could finish only 5th. The other 3yo Secret Gesture (Ralph Beckett/ Jamie Spencer) also has good Oaks form to her credit - she was runner-up in both the English and German versions. We definitely prefer Venus de Milo of these, and it looks as if her stable had rather underestimated her early in the season, but that certainly won´t be the case now and she will probably go off favourite.
Of the older horses The Fugue (John Gosden/ William Buick) is clearly the best; she is top-rated here and ran a good second in this race last year. She was a huge disappointment in the Eclipse last time, but her earlier Royal Ascot form was good enough, and with her stable back in top form, she has everything in her favour today. Emirates Queen (Luca Cumani/ Andrea Atzeni) ran ran well at Deauville last time and earlier won the Lancashire Oaks, beating Moment in Time (David Simcock/ Jim Crowley), who had earlier defeated Nymphea. This is solid form, but we are not sure that it is up to top Group One standard.
We would obviously love to see the German-bred Wild Coco (Lady Cecil/ Tom Queally) run well. The Röttgen-bred has been very carefully handled by Lady Cecil, and before that Henry, and is the choice of stable jockey Tom Queally; however there must be a doubt about her handling the fast going. The ground will suit Emirates Queen and Secret Gesture, and they may be the two to bustle up the favourites, but we expect the race to lie between The Fugue and Venus de Milo, with slight preference for the latter.
later: Wild Coco non-runner, Queally likely to ride Riposte

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Thunder Strike - Sleeper King - Rufford
2. Race: J Wonder - Lucky Kristale - Wind Fire
3. Race: Queensberry Rules - Hot Bed - Sandagiyr
4. Race: The Fugue - Venus De Milo - Riposte
5. Race: Say - Songbird - Star Lahib
6. Race: Nurpur - Indignant - Ghasabah