International Stakes at York

York´s Ebor Festival starts today and for many people it is the best meeting of the year. Today´s highlight is the Group One International Stakes over an extended 10 furlongs at 16.40 CET and despite having only 6 runners, this is one of the best fields of the season. The race has an illustrious history and the best horses seen so far this century both won it - Sea the Stars in 2009 and Frankel last year - but there have also been some shocks, we still remember Brigadier Gerard losing his unbeaten record here some 40 years ago.
Place money goes down to sixth place - 10 grand for the last to finish which can´t be bad- theoretically this has to be Rewarded (Jamie Toller/ Tom Queally) who is to be rewarded this way, but we would not bet on this - we would rather find the winner.
That is not easy as the other 5 runners are genuine Group One performers and Al Kazeem (Roget Charlton/ James Doyle) is in fact going for this fourth successive win at this level, having won the Tattersalls Gold Cup, Prince of Wales and Eclipse, which makes him the best middle distance horse in Europe - so far. Toronado (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes) is next in the betting and obviously a huge threat after his excellent win in the Sussex Stakes. He is actually the highest-rated runner, but there has to be a question over the distance - he has never run beyond a mile. He is by High Chaparral so there is some hope there, but we still prefer the more solid El Kazeem.
This is by no means a two horse race and both the Irish challengers have chances. Trading Leather (Jim Bolger/ Kevin Manning) is a very tough campaigner who won the Irish Derby and then ran a good second to Novellist at Ascot. In what is certain to be a tactical race, he could well make the running at a false pace and steal the race that way. Declaration of War (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien) is held by Al Kazeem on Eclipse form, and has since run 4th in the Jacques le Marois, but we have not forgotten the way he won over a mile at Royal Ascot; however the distance could be a problem for him as well.
Hillstar (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore) has to be respected, but needs to improve; that is certainly possible, but he finished behind Trading Leather at Ascot and we expect that to happen again.
This is not really a good betting race, but to our mind Al Kazeem is clearly the one to beat, and despite the claims of Toronado, we think that Trading Leather could be the main danger if given the run of the race.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Above Standard - Ladyship - Lady Gibraltar
2. Race: The Grey Gatsby - First Flight - Brazos
3. Race: Telescope - Cap O`rushes - Foundry
4. Race: Al Kazeem - Toronado - Trading Leather
5. Race: Homeric - Flashman - Party Line
6. Race: Coulsty - Banaadeer - Ventura Quest