Friday, July 19, 2013

listed races today

plenty of racing today, but the continuing hot spell and resultant firm ground mean that there are once more some very small fields (and probably some non-runners as well). The listed race for 2yo´s over 6 furlongs at 16.25 CET, with only 5 runners, is the main event at Newbury and Thunder Strike (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes) has clearly the best form here, having won his first 3 starts and then running fourth in the Coventry. However William Haggas´ filly Survived (Martin Harley) also ran well at Royal Ascot - sixth in the Queen Mary- and looks a big danger in receipt of 8 lbs. Haggas can also win the handicap for 3yo fillies at 25.50 with the same owner´s Rock Choir (Seb Sanders).
There are also small fields at Haydock, but 11 turn out for the 5 furlongs handicap at 15,50, which should lie between Red Baron (Eric Alston/ Neil Farley) and Six Wives (Scott Dixon/ Tom Queally).
At Nottingham the main event is a 10 furlongs handicap at 17.10 with 7 runners. We don´t like betting favourites in handicaps, but Trader Jack (Roger Charlton/ James Doyle) was a close fourth in a much hotter race at Sandown last time, and if he can repeat that form, should win here.
The best racing this evening comes from Scotland, wher Hamilton stage one of their best cards of the year, featuring the listed Glasgow Stakes for 3yo´s over 1 mile 3 furlongs at 21.15.Unfortunately there are only 5 runners, 3 of them trained by Mark Johnston, and his Maputo (Joe Fanning), who has won 4 races this year and was particularly impressive last time at Nottingham, will go off at odds-on and should win easily. The valuable 6 furlongs handicap 20.45 looks wide open, but we would like to give old Johannes (Richard Fahey/ George Chaloner) another chance; he is on a long losing run but has come down a lot in the weights.
The only jumps racing today comes from Ireland, where the Midlands Grand National at 21.30 at Kilbeggan is the big betting race. Tom Horn (Noel Meade/ Mark Walsh) was an easy winner of a beginners chase over this CD 3 weeks ago, and although this is a much tougher race, can go close to scoring again on a track which he likes.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Jersey Royal - Ghaawy - Muwaary
2. Race: Autumn Sunrise - Terhaab - Amazing Maria
3. Race: Rock Choir - Wall Of Sound - Invincible Cara
4. Race: Survived - Thunder Strike - Cool Bahamian
5. Race: Swendab - Storm Lightning - Crimson Queen
6. Race: Gabrial The Great - Ruscello - Lord Ofthe Shadows
7. Race: Curly Come Home - Shirataki - Whitby Jet