Irish Oaks at the Curragh

As is often the case on a Saturday there is lots of good racing all over the place today- too much in our view - but there is no doubt about the top event of the day - the Group One Darley Irish Oaks at 19.15 CET at the Curragh. This has attracted a good field, hardly surprising in view of itsprestige and prize-money, and strangely enough this is a race which is rarely won by an Irish runner.

Five of the 8 runners are trained in Ireland, but we expect this trend to continue in view of the strong British and French challenge. Chicquita (Alain de Royer-Dupré/ Johnny Murtagh) and this filly must be respected after her second place in the Prix de Diane, especially as her trainer does not waste time on foreign journeys without good reason. However we prefer the two British fillies and expect them to take the first two places: Talent (Ralph Beckett/ Jim Crowley), a most impressive winner of the Oaks at Epsom, and Riposte (Lady Cecil/ Tom Queally), whose Royal Ascot victory was an emotional occasion, coming just a few days after Sir Henry´s death. She is clearly improving, but in our view, needs to improve further to beat Talent, our confident selection. Aidan O´Brien saddles 3 of the Irish runners with his son Joseph partnering Just Pretending, but she was more than two lengths behind Riposte at Ascot and we see no reason why she should now reverse that form. The O´Brie ns are of course strongly represented on the undercard as well and have good chances in the two Group Three races - with easy Naas winner Oklahoma CIty in the 2yo race at 17.40 and with ex-American Darwin in the 7 furlongs race an hour later. However we shall go against both of them - with Jallotta (Mick Channon/ Martin Harley), whose English form looks very strong, in the former event, and Gordon Lord Byron (Tom Hogan/ Wayne Lordan) in the latter; he is running over his ideal distance and his fourth place in the Diamond Jubilee over 6 furlongs reads very well.

Diamond Jubilee form is also represented by Krypton Factor (Fawzi Nass/ Luke Morris) in the Group Three at 16.15 at Newbury and he should be too strong for Hamza (Kevin Ryan/ Neil Callan). The most valuable race here is the Weatherbys Super Sprint for 2yo´s over 5 furlongs at 16.50´with well over 200,000 GBP in prize-money. With 24 runners spread across the course, this is in our view not a good race to bet on, especially with Richard Fahey (5 runners), Kevin Ryan (4) and Richard Hannon (4) all mob-handed.

Better opportunities for betting can possibly found at Market Rasen, which stages the best summer jumping of the year. There could be two German-bred winners here as Local Hero (Steve Gollings/ Paul Bohan) must have a chance of repeating last year´s victory under top-weight in the listed handicap hurdle at 15.55, while Engai (David Bridgwater/ Tom Scudamore) can follow up his recent win in the novice hurdle at 17.05.

Betting forecast for Curragh:
1. Race: Kerkeni - Spring Focus - Carla Bianca
2. Race: One True Love - Pearl Of Africa - Angela`s Dream
3. Race: Jallota - Oklahoma City - Home School
4. Race: Eastern Rules - Rain God - Man Of Erin
5. Race: Gordon Lord Byron - Darwin - Leitir Mor
6. Race: Riposte - Talent - Alive Alive Oh
7. Race: Belle De Crecy - Valbucca - Treasure The Ridge
8. Race: Rebel Force - Orator - Al Destoor