Thursday, July 18, 2013

better racing in Ireland

the two Irish meetings today look much more interesting. Killarney stages the fourth and final day of its meeting this afternoon, with 3 flat races, 3 over hurdles (all over the same distance of 2 miles 1 furlong) and a bumper. The novice hurdle at 16.55 CET deserves vlose attention, as it has been won by some smart performers in the past. It would appear to lie between Shamar (Willie Mullins/ Ruby Walsh) and Sizing Platinum (Henry de Bromhead/ Andrew Lynch), The former, an ex-French runner bred by the Aga Khan, ran disaapointingly last autumn for his new connections on soft ground, but was much better when winning on better going at Cork in May and remains a big hope for the champion trainer. However Sizing Platinum was most impressive when turning his first race, at Clonmel in May, into a procession and might have the edge today. The "Sizing" team owned by Alan and Ann Potts have become a major player in Irish N.H. racing and also have good prospects at 17.25 with Solution, 17.55 with Machine and at 18.25 with Scorpion.
The flat racing at Killarney is not much, but it is on a different level this evening at Leopardstown with a high class card which will probably be dominated as usual by Aidan O´Brien and Dermot Weld. The main event is a Group Three for 2yo fillies at 20.00, in which O´Brien runs Wonderfilly, with his son Joseph in the saddle, and Perhaps (Seamus Heffernan); they are half-sisters to Mars and Battle of Marengo respectively and also have good form, although Wonderfully at Royal Ascot finished well behind Heart Focus (Jim Bolger/ Kevin Manning). That one has already run 6 times since early May, so we just prefer the two unbeaten filles Avenue Gabriel (Peter Deegan/ Chris Hayes) and Simple Love (Weld/ Pat Smullen), who both won their maidens with the minmum of fuss. Dermot Weld has won the listed race over 1 3/4 miles at 20.35 for the past five years and now saddles the 6yo mare Unaccompanied (Smullen), last seen running up to Hurricane Fly over hurdles here at Christmas. Weld is brilliant with these dual-purpose horses and she can win from the O´Briens´ El Salvador - who possibly needs softer ground -. and Royal Diamond (Johnny Murtagh), who as the winner of last year´s Irish St. Leger is top-rated but also penalised. The opening 2yo maiden over a mile át 19.00 has only 3 runners but could be very informative with O´Brien and Weld both saddling very well-bred newcomers. The former´s Geoffrey Chaucer, a half-brother to top class Shamardal, is definitely one to watch.

Betting forecast at Leopardstown:
1. Race: Geoffrey Chaucer - Tarfasha - Stirabout
2. Race: Il Palazzo - Late Rosebud - Mischief N Mayhem
3. Race: Heart Focus - Wonderfully - Perhaps
4. Race: Royal Diamond - El Salvador - Unaccompanied
5. Race: At Boolavogue - Campestral Scene - Little Arrows
6. Race: Bunairgead - Fortify - Ottoman Empire
7. Race: Greek Canyon - Legal Lyric - Target Acquired