Saturday, April 20, 2013

Classic trials at Newbury

Newbutry stages a strong card today, with two classic trials taking centre stage. Unfortunately there are only 5 runners for the Greenham Stakes for colts over 7 furlongs at 16.30 CET and on ratings it looks a straight match between Moohaajim (Marco Botti/ Martin Harley) and Olympic Glory (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes). The latter was runner-up in the Coventry at Royal Ascot, but won all his other starts, including the Lagardere over this distance at Longchamp in October. He is obviously very smart, but we still have slight preference for the former, who won the Mill Reef here and was then beaten a neck in the Middle Park. Any oither winner woiuld be a major suprise.

The fillies race, the Fred Darling at 15.55, looks more open, although Rosdhu Queen (William Haggas/ Johnny Murtagh) will be a clear favourite and has been well backed for the1,000 Guineas. She was unbeaten in 4 starts last year, finisjhing the season by winning the Cheveley Park. Well behind her that day was Maureen (Hannon/ Hughes), but she seems to be more stoutly bred and could well reverse the form. However this is a race in which a surprise result appears quite possible.

The John Porter Stakes for older horses over 1 1/2 miles at 14.50 is another Group Three race here, and Noble Mission (Sir Henry Cecil/ Tom Queally) is the obvious favourite here. Cecil has already started the season well and this one is an own brother to the mighty Frankel. He stays much better than his brother and has plenty of ability. Allied Powers (Michael Bell/ Jamie Spencer), who was runner-up here last year, could be placed.

The Spering Cupo, a valuable mile handocap at 15.20 is the big betttinhg race, but looks almost impossible. The field of 25 includes the first 4 from the Lincoln, who are now handicapped to dead heat. The Queen was here yesterday to see Hayley Turner ride a winner in her colours, and the same could happen with the lightly-raced Border Legend (Roger Charlton). However we have not seen H.M.´s diary for today, so we will not not bet on her, but rather give this race a swerve and back the German-bred Dandy (Andrew Balding/ David Probert) in the 10 furlongs handicap at 14.15.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Exceedexpectations - Cactus Valley - Take Two
2. Race: Noble Mission - Model Pupil - Guarantee
3. Race: Educate - Global Village - Gouray Girl
4. Race: Rosdhu Queen - Maureen - The Gold Cheongsam
5. Race: Olympic Glory - Moohaajim - Sir Patrick Moore
6. Race: Kyllachy Rise - Rock God - Prince`s Trust
7. Race: Excellent Result - Feel Like Dancing - Squire Osbaldeston