Scottish Grand National at Ayr

A very busy day with racing all over, but the two top meetings are clearly at Newbury on the flat and at Ayr over jumps, with the biggest Scottish N.H. card of the season. The Scottish Grand National over an extended 4 miles at 16.50 CET, with over 100,000 GBP to the winner, is the most valuable race of the day and has attracted a very competitive field of 25 runners. The obvious place to start is Auroras Encore (Sue Smith/ Ryan Mania), who won the "real thing" at odds of 66-1 just a fortnight ago. This a very tough task just 2 weeks after his Aintree victory; very few attempt the double and only Red Rum in 1974 has brought it off. He is no Red Rum and we cannot believe he can win this under top weoght; the ground is miuch softer than it was at Aintree- though not as soft as had been expected- and he has been put up 11 lbs for winning at Aintree, although he is only 5 lbs higher than when beaten a head in this race last year.

This is a minefield for punters, and we - with more hope than expectation- have taken 5 horses against the field: Lion Na Bearnai (Tom Gibney/ Robbie McNamara), winner of last year´s Irish Grand National but who has only run one since; Rival d´Estruval (Pauline Robeson/ Timmy Murphy) who fell when still going well at Cheltenham last time, but has been 1/2 in his 6 previous races; Problema Tic (David Pipe/ Tom Scudamore) who we think looks well handicapped; Bradley (Fergal O´Brien/ Conor Shoemark), a top hunter chaser lastr season, but also good enough at this level; and Neptune Equester (Brian Ellison/ Danny Cook), from a stable in excellent form. Of course the other 20 runners may also have a word or two to say about this, so our selections are very tentative.

Most of the races here are handicaps, including the Scottish Champion Hurdle at 16.15, which also looks very tough. Grumeti (Alan King /Wayne Hutchinson) has top weight here, but is coming off a long break. He was third in last year´s Triumph Hurdle, the same position held this year by Sametegal (Paul Nicholls/ Ruby Walsh), but we do not normally like 4yo´s in these top handicaps. Shtovodka (Pipoe/ Scu) flopped last time at Auintree on fast ground, but had won his previous 3 races on very soft ground. We shall take a chance on German-bred Local Hero (Steve Gollings/ M;ichael Nolan), who was runner-up in this last year.

We think that the best chance for King and Hutchinson is Oh Crick in the listed handicap chase at 16.15; he has only won once in the last 3 years, but is now very well handicapped on his best form. The handicap hurdle at 17.25 is another very tough race; our choice here is bottom weight Arctic Court (Jim Goldie/ Timmy Murphy), another one who looks well handicapped after a string of below par performances. Best bet on the card could be Tap Night (Lucinda Russell/ Barry Geraghty) in the Grade Two Future Champions Novice Chase at 15.05. Tony McCoy would normally have ridden him, but he is out of action after breaking some ribs in a fall on Thursday; Barry Geraghty looks an ideal replacement.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Rhymers Ha` - Shanroe Society - Reaping The Reward
2. Race: Tap Night - Changing Times - Rajdhani Express
3. Race: Grumeti - Sametegal - Court Minstrel
4. Race: Petit Robin - Pepite Rose - Conquisto
5. Race: Rival D`Estruval - Big Occasion - Godsmejudge
6. Race: Walkabout Creek - Hollo Ladies - Duaiseoir
7. Race: The Druids Nephew - Buddy Bolero - Johns Spirit
8. Race: Tradewinds - Reddy Tobouggie - Glingerburn