Sunday, April 14, 2013

classic trials at Leopardstown

all three U.K. meetings today are N.H., while there is also Irish jumps racing at Tramore, but this is mainly at a very low level, and by far the most interesting racing of the day takes place at the sole flat meeting, at Leopardstown, which features 3 important classic trials.
The Group Three Ballysax Stakes over 10 furlongs at 17.15 CET has been dominated this century by Aidan O´Brien and Jim Bolger and they provide 4 of the 6 runners today. Frankly, Bolger´s pair Alpinist (Kevin Manning) - although he has a fitness advantage as the only one to have run this season - and Beyond Thankful (RP Cleary) do not look good enough. O´Brien though has strong prospects with his son Joseph on the likely favourite Battle of Marengo, while Seamus Heffernan rides Foundry, winner of his only start; both are by Galileo, who won this race for the stable before going on to take the Derby. and Battle of Marengo, who won his last 3 races, including a Group Two over a mile, is already a leading fancy for the Epsom race. However he has to concede 5 lbs all round here, no easy task, and Sugar Boy (Paddy Prendergast/ Chris Hayes) could be a tough nut to crack; he also won his last 3 races last year, including here over 9 furlongs in November, and is bred to stay well.
O´Brien also has strong candidates in the 2,000 Guineas Trial at 15.35 and the 1,000 Guineas Trial at 16.40. In the former event he has just the one runner, The United States (Joseph), who won his only start, at the Curragh in July; this was a very promising effort and he should again hold the Aga Khan´s Dibayani (Michael Halford/ Declan McDonough), but Move to Strike (Bolger/ Manning), despite his Royal Ascot defeat, could be dangerous. O´Brien has two runners in the fillies´event, Snow Queen, presumably the main hope with Joseph aboard, and Greek Goddess (Heffernan), but both look rather exposed. There are 3 fillies in the field who won their only start last year, and we shall take a chance on What Style (John Oxx/ McDonough), who beat Snow Queen when winning over this CD in August.
O´Brien has again two of the 6 runners in the listed mile race at 16.05, with Joseph partnering the smart Declaration of War, winner of 4 of his 5 career starts. However on a line though Famous Name, who won this race 3 times, he has nothing in hand of Sweet Lightning (Tommy Carmody/ Johnny Murtagh), runner-up last year and recently easy winner of the Irish Lincolnshire; he receives 5 lbs and can possibly beat the favourite.
On what is obviously an important day for the O´Brien stable, there will also be plenty of interest in Michaelmas (Joseph) in the opening 2yo race; he is rumoured to be the stable´s best early juvenile. However all of these races should be watched rather than bet heavily, as all the runners mentioned are being aimed are more important targets later in the season.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Michaelmas - Focus On Venice - Glory Boy
2. Race: The United States - Dibayani - Move To Strike
3. Race: Sweet Lightning - Windsor Palace - Paene Magnus

4. Race: What Style - Snow Queen - Hint Of A Tint
5. Race: Foundry - Sugar Boy - Alpinist

6. Race: Fastidious - Lily Of Kenmare - Bendzoldan
7. Race: Justification - Show Court - Raise The Beat