Saturday, April 13, 2013

listed races at Doncaster and Kempton

this is probably the weakest Saturday of the year in terms of high class racing, and there are no group or graded races at any of today´s 5 tracks.
However there are quite well-contested listed races at both Doncaster and Kempton (on the all-weather). At Doncaster, the Doncaster Mile at 15.20 CET has only 6 runners, and they include Sovereign Debt (Michael Bell/ Jamie Spencer) who is apparently being aimed at the Lockinge Stakes. If he is to have any chance in that group one event, then he must win this but he has a dangerous opponent in Highland Knight (Andrew Balding/ Liam Keniry), winner of last year´s Oettingen-Rennen at Baden-Baden. There was only a neck between them when they finished 2/3 in a Group Three at Salisbury last year and it could be a close thing again.
Otherwise there are some very competitive handicaps on the Doncaster card. Almost half the large field in the 6 furlongs handicap at 16.30 ran over this CD a fortnight ago, either in the listed Cammidge Trophy, won by Jack Dexter (Jim Goldie/ Graham Lee), or the handicap won by Thunderball (Scott Dixon/ Tom Queally); obviousy the weights have been adjusted, so that the result could well be different this time, but we were quite taken with Jack Dexter´ s victory and think he can score again under top weight. We also like the top-weight in the following 10 furlongs handicap, Beaumont´s Party (Brian Ellison/ Dale Swift) , who scored at Newcastle last week on his first start for this trainer and is still well handicapped on his old form. In the 1 1/2 mile race at 15.55, our choice is Ingleby Spirit (Richard Fahey/ George Chaloner), whose stable is in good form and who has been running quite well over hurdles. Best thing of the day at Doncaster is Lewisham (Ralph Beckett/ Ryan Moo re) in the maiden at 17.40; he was group-placed last year and stands out by miles here.
The listed race at Kempton is for fillies over a mile at 16.15. Irish raider Lily´s Angel (Ger Lyons/ Gary Carroll) has to concede 3 lbs to her 13 opponents here, but we think she is up to the task; she ran well enough in a group race at the Curragh last Sunday and had previously shown decent form in Dubai. Richard Hannon and Richard Hughes have a strong team here and can take the 7 furlongs handicap at 15.05 with Shamal Nibras, 4th in better company over this CD last time. They have another chance with Glean in the conditions race for 3yo´s at 15.40, but we prefer Thistleandtwocroses (Andrew Balding/ Jimmy Fortune), owned by Sir Alex Ferguson, who was an easy winner of a maiden here and can tske this step up in class. The Queen´s Prize over 2 miles at 18.00 used to be one of the best staying handicaps of the season; this is no longer the case, and we shall take a chance here on bottom-weight Topolski (David Arbuthnot/ Hayley Turner), a smart hurdler who has been below form r ecently but is now on a very appealing rating.
Over jumps, we hope to see German-breds successful at Stratford and Uttoxeter. At the former course Seventh Sky (Chatrlie Mann/ Gavin Sheehan), a half-brother to Samum, and Iolith (Alan King/ Wayne Hutchinson), by Monsun, clash in the 2 mile handicap hurdle at 17.15 and could well take the first two places. At Uttoxeter, Air Force One (Lawnay Hill/ David Bass), by Lando, has his first race for this trainer and is certainly capable of winning the 3 mile handicap hurdle at 16.55 if anywhere near his best form.
In Ireland, there is a low-level jumps meeting at Tramore. Willie Mullins, who celebrated one of the biggest wins of his highly successful career when Blackstairmountain won in Japan this morning, has two runners and could take the mares bumper at 18.40 with Slate Lady, ridden by his son Paddy.

Betting forecast Doncaster:
1. Race: Donny Rover - Mr Dandy Man - Peterkin
2. Race: Highland Knight - Sovereign Debt - Gabrial
3. Race: Beyond Conceit - Man Of Plenty - The Lock Master
4. Race: Jack Dexter - Duke Of Firenze - Move In Time
5. Race: Beaumont`S Party - Patriotic - Muharrer
6. Race: Flirtinaskirt - Robot Boy - Deepest Blue
7. Race: School Fees - Spark Of Genius - Foreign Rhythm