Wednesday, February 13, 2013

Musselburgh today

5 meetings today, but to be frank, Musselburgh is the only one worth a serious look, as there are 3 all-weather meetings, all at a very low level, while there are big fields on very heavy ground in Ireland at Thurles and it is almost impossible to work out the form thetre in view of the constant bad weather and many abandonments.


Star of the show at Musselburgh is Peddlers Cross (Donald McCain/ Jason Maguire) who runs in the hurdle race over 2 3/4 miles at 14.40 CET. Peddlers Cross started his career by winning his first 7 races (including the Neptune at the Cheltenham Festioval) and was then runner-up to Hurricane Fly in the Champion Hurdle. Although he has won over fences, he does not seem to be as good a chaser as he was over sticks, so it is natural for him to revert to hurdles now. He has never yet run as far as today´s distance, but assuming he gets it (and it seems almost unconceivable that he won´t win against this feeble opposition), then the World Hurdle over 3 miles will be the next step.
Of course Peddlers Cross is not a betting propoition today, but there may be some profit in backing Richard Guest´s two runners, Be my Deputy with top amateur Nivo de Boinville at 14.,10, and Velvet Vic (down in distance) with Dougie Costello in the saddle) at 16.10; Takaatuf (John Wade/ John Dawson), runner-up last time to Home Run, looks the danger in the latter race. The 2 mile handicap hurdle at 16.40 is another interesting race. David O´Meara has two runners here, top-weight Ifandbutwhynot (Timmy Murphy) and Roman Flight (McCoy?) and both must be respected, while Cry of Freedom (John Ferguson/ Denis O´Regan) has been off since April; that should be no problem with this trainer, whose horses have been running well and he gets a narrow vote. Flogarose (Lucy Normile/ Costello) is the question mark here, the 4yo filly has won 4 races in the French provinces but makes her U.K. debut now.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Be My Deputy - Ballybanks - Blazing Bull
2. Race: Peddlers Cross - Cue To Cue - Orsippus
3. Race: Cayman Islands - God`s Own - Thimaar
4. Race: Bogside - Bridlingtonbygones - Local Present
5. Race: Golden Sparkle - Takaatuf - Winter Alchemy
6. Race: Roman Flight - Ifandbutwhynot - Cry of Freedom
7. Race: Buckstruther - Cocoa Key - A New Rising
8. Race: Spitz - Plan Again - Saffron Town