Tuesday, February 12, 2013

3 poor meetings today

both turf meetings today - Lingfield and Ayr- have passed early morning inspections, and racing goes ahead, but the cards here and also for the all-weather meeting at Southwell, are extremely weak. Not only that, the fields are generally small as well - in fact there are only 2 races today with 10 runners or more, while there are quite a few with 5 or less.
It is rare for Tony McCoy to travel up to Scotland except for the big meetings, but he has two rides at Ayr today and could well win on both - Deepsand for Tim Easterby in thr maiden hurdle at 14.50 CET and Tap Night for Lucinda Russell in the novice chase at 16.25. Tap Night is owned by his boss, JP McManus, and is presumably the reason for his presence; he was last of 4 last time at Musselburgh, but that was a better race and he had won 4 of his previous 5 starts. The Tracy Shuffle (David Pipe/ Tom Scudamore), also a beaten favourite last time and also making a long journey here, was almost his equal over hurdles and is the obvious danger. Lucinda Russell, also has a chance of winning the handicap chase at 17.30 with Nuts N Bolts, ridden by her normal stable jockey Peter Buchanan. He has won over this CD both over sticks and over fences (3 weeks ago); Stormin Exit (Donald McCain/ Jason Maguire) also has a good CD record and is the alternative.
The hurdle course at Lingfield is unraceable and there is an all-chase card, except for ther final bumper on the all-weather track. Conditons will be dreadful and so is the standard of racing. The best race is the 3 mile handicap chase at 16.05. Veteran Massini Sunset has not won for ages, but usually runs his race and has been dropped in the weights, as has Miss Fleur (Nick Mitchell/Daryl Jacob); they look the two likeliest candidates.
In all honesty one should leave most of these races alone and the same goes for the card at Southwell. The best race here is the 7 furlongs handicap at 16.15. We have been following Docofthebay (Scott Dixon/ Luke Morris), which has been very expensive, as he has only won once in the last 28 months and never at all for his current trainer, the owner´s son. We remain convinced that he can win off this rating and give him another chance today. Top-weight Nazreef (Hughie Morrison/ Robert Winston), a course specialist but out of form, looks the main threat.

Betting forecast Southwell:
1. Race: Red Shadow - Speedyfix - Mataajir
2. Race: Ifan - Makinson Lane - Frosty Friday
3. Race: Fluctuation - Flying Pickets - Elusive Warrior
4. Race: Chookie Royale - Thunderball - Kickingthelilly
5. Race: Tartan Jura - Inside Knowledge - Almadan
6. Race: Apache Rising - Roland - Gebayl
7. Race: Goldmadchen - Honest Strike - The Ducking Stool