Thursday, February 14, 2013

Kelso and Thurles

The most interesting event today is the hurdles race over 2 1/4 miles at 15.40 CET at Kelso. Only 5 runners, and one of them, Orsippus, must be doubtful after running third at Musselburgh yesterday. Any Given Day (Donald McCain/ Jason Maguire) is easily top-rated here, but we are not sure; he has only run one in the past 14 months and all his best form is over much further. Pas Trop Tard (Maurice Barnes/ Mike McAllister) is much improved this season, having won 4 of his 5 starts since September and goes well on the heavy, but we prefer the relatively unexposed Duke of Navan (Nicky Richards/ Brian Harding), an easy winner here last time over 2 miles.

Coverholder (Sjue Smith/ Jonathan England) looks a good bet in the handicap hurdle over the same distance an hour later; he is not penalised for last week´s easy win at Doncaster and has the same jockey on board. German-bred Full Speed (Philip Kirby/ Barry Keniry) is the obvious alternative; a multiple flat winner, he has little hurdling experience, but his second place to Dotties Dilemma in October makes good reading. Another one we like is Totalize (Brian Ellison/ Danny Cook), who is out of a Monsun mare and runs in the novice hurdle at 16.10; danger here is ex-French Unique de Cotte (David Pipe/ Tony McCoy), whose British debut was decent enough but has to concede 7 lbs to Totalize.

Best bet at the Irish meeting at Thurles could be Clashnabrook (Edwatrd O´Grady/ PT Enright) who runs in the handicap chase at 15.50. He was a good runner-up over hurdles to the smart Colbert Station last time, and that winner is now a leading fancy for the Grand National. Seventh there was German-bred Boland´s Corner, who runs in the 3 mile handicap chase an hour later under a very low weight; he has a small chance, but the one to beat here is surely Wise Oscar (Dessie Hughes/ Bryan Cooper), who has been in good form over hurdles recently and is extremely well handicapped over fences.

The card for Kempton´s all-weather meeting is very low grade and many old friends are running here. Bussa (David Evans/ Tom Brown) has been in great form this winter, having won 4 races and been runner-up 3 times in the past two months; however he has gone up in the weights and we prefer course specialist Diplomatic (M Squance/ Robert Tart) in the 7 furlongs handicap at 18.30; Dunnó (David Nicholls/ Franny Norton) looks very dangerous here off bottom weight. 12yo Dvinsky (Paul Howling/ Ian Mongan) runs in an even weaker 7 furlongs handicap at 21.00; this is his 225th race - a British record- and we would love to see him win again; he has an excellent course record, having won 10 times here, 3 times CD, but his recent form is poor and he is also badly drawn, so we shall wait for next time.