Friday, November 30, 2012

Newbury today

Newbury stages the second day of the Hennessy meeting with another good card. With the weather improving, the track is now good to soft and is expected to dry out further. Main feature is the Grade Two novice chase over 2 1/2 miles at 15.05 CET, in which Dynaste (David Pipe/ Tom Scudamore) looks a worthy favourite. He was a smart staying hurdler - chasing home Big Bucks on one occasion- and won his first chase in promising style. Theatre Guide (Colin and Joe Tizzard) was not much worse over hurdles and also started off over fences with an impressive win; he is up in trip but looks the main danger. Court in Motion (Emma Lavelle/ Barry Geraghty) is an interesting runner; he had some smart form 2 years ago and made a satisfactory comeback recently, but the stable has been a bit quiet recently. Benefficient (Tony Martin/ Tony McCoy) was runner-up in a similar race over 3 miles here yesterday and would be a danger if he turns out again.

The card opens with a 3yo hurdle in which ex-French Saphir du Rheu (Paul Nicholls/ Ruby Walsh) makes his U.K. debut; he is highly regarded and can defeat some useful ex-flat horses from big stables. This could be the start of another good day for the Nicholls/ Walsh team, who can also score with Curtain Razer at 15.40 (although this looks a very open race, in which we also like German-bred Fair Along) and The Knoxs at 16.15, who receives 17 lbs from stable companion Tataniano (Daryl Jacob); the latter is pretty useful, but we do not imagine that he can win under this weight. Nicky Henderson and Barry Geraghty are represented by Giorgio Quercus in the latter event, whose recent form is not so great but he has been dropped to a lenient rating and could be a big threat. Henderson and Geraghty can also take the mares novice hurdle at 14.00 with Glorious Twelfth and have another winning chance with Kaki de la Pree in the concluding maiden hurdle at 16.45, where smart bumper horse Puffin Billy (Oliver Sherwood/ Leighton Aspell) looks the one to beat.

There is an inspection still to come at Musselburgh today, where there has been overnight frost, but there are no problems with Doncaster, where we expect in-form trainer Tom George and his stable jockey Paddy Brennan to enjoy another profitable afternoon.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Saphir Du Rheu - Vasco D`ycy - Pistol
2. Race: Glorious Twelfth - Carole`S Destiny - Dancingtilmidnight
3. Race: Drumshambo - Roll The Dice - Ballywatt
4. Race: Dynaste - Theatre Guide - Court In Motion
5. Race: Curtain Razer - Ballybough Pat - Duke Of Monmouth
6. Race: Prince Of Pirates - The Knoxs - Bless The Wings
7. Race: Puffin Billy - Kaki De La Pree - Sound Investment