Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury

The Hennessy Gold Cup, a handicap chase over 3 1/4 miles due to be run this afternoon at 16.10 CET at Newbury, is always one of the best handicaps of the season and we shall be seeing many of these runners again at the Cheltenham Festival in March. Bobs Worth (Nicky Henderson/ Barry Geraghty) won the RSA Chase there last time and is now being aimed at the Gold Cup itself; if that is the case, then he should win this today.

We don´t like backing favourites in big handicaps, but Bobs Worth has an undeniable chance. Henderson also saddles Roberto Goldback (Jerry McGrath), but this one is handicapped to the hilt and we cannot see him repeating his Ascot victory over Duke of Lucca (Philip Hobbs/ Richard Johnson) on 12 lbs worse terms. In fact Duke of Lucca - whose team did us a big favour yresterday with Fair Along - is our best each-way bet here. First Lieutenant (Mouse Morris/ Bryan Cooper) is a fancied runner from Ireland. He was runner-up to Kauto Stone at Down Royal last time and at Cheltenham runner-up to Bobs Worth after a long battle, but is only one pound better off now, which may not be enough.

Paulk Nicholls saddles two here, Tidal Bay with Ruby Walsh (if he hads recoivered from yesterday´s fall) and Harry the Viking (Daryl Jacpb), who jhas a nice weoight but has been pulled up the last twice; Tidal Way is top class both over hurdles and fences, but if he wins this off 166 it will be the handicap performance of the year. Diamond Harry (Nick Williams/ Nick Scholfield) and Carruthers (Mark Bradstock/ Mattie Bachelor) have won the last two runnings, but both seem to be totally out of form at present. David Pipe´s The Package will be ridden by Tom Scudamore, as Timmy Murphy will be out of action for several weeks; he won well last time at Wincanton but this looks much tougher. Obvuousky there are lots og pssobiltzies here with 19 runners, and Hold On Julio (Alan King/ Choc Thornton) and Saint Are (Tim Vaughan/ Dougie Costello) are also worth a mention, but our 3 against the field are Bobs Worth, First Lieutenant and Duke of Lucca (each way).

The best horse running today will be seen at 15.00: Big Bucks (Nicholls/ Walsh), the highest-rated N.H. horse in training and now going for his 18th consecutive success, including 5 over this CD. He will win the Long Distance Hurdle over 3 miles for the 4th time; his last defeat came on this very day in 2008., when he fell at the last in the Hennessy. Since then he has stuck to hurdling, with amazing success. He faces only 3 inferior rivals today and will start at an impossible price, but will still bring the house down after his inevitable victory.

The other big race is the listed mares novice hurdle at 13.50. This looks quite tricky, but Henderson has a high opinion of Ma Filleule (Geraghty), winner of 3 chases in France, and she might be good enough, although her one British win tells us very little. Call Me a Star (Alan King/ Thornton) beat Eleven Fifty Nine (Tony Honeyball/ Rachael Green) at Uttoxeter and can confirm that form on the same terms, while She Ranks Me (Donald McCain/ Tony McCoy) is also proven in this grade.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Hunters Lodge - Ballyoliver - Minella Stars
2. Race: Ma Filleule - She Ranks Me - Call Me A Star
3. Race: Rolling Aces - Merry King - Seven Woods
4. Race: Big Buck`S - Fox Appeal - Reve De Sivola
5. Race: Salubrious - Ardlui - At Fishers Cross
6. Race: Bobs Worth - Hold On Julio - Tidal Bay
7. Race: Gus Macrae - Ulck du Lin - Tatispout