good racing at Newbury

some good news for a change - there is a good card at Newbury today, the first day of the 3-day Hennessy Gold Cup meeting, and with the weather showing slight improvement, the ground may not be quite as bad as feared earlier. It will however still be very soft and there seem certain to be further abandonments tomorrow and Saturday. Today´s main event is the Grade Two novice chase over 3 miles at 15.05 CET, in which all 6 runners are last-time-out winners, most of them after winning their first race over fences, including Irish hope Benefficient (Tony Martoin/ Tony McCoy). However our main fancies are Houblon des Obeaux (Venetia Williams/ Aidan Coleman), a smart hurdler who has won both his chases in fine style, and the promising Harry Topper (Kim Bailey/ Timmy Murphy). The limited handicap chase over 2 miles 1 furlong at 13.55 is another good race, with 5 of the 6 runners winning last time. Celtus (Nicky Henderson/ Barry Geraghty) is the exception, as he was pulled up behind Howard´s Legacy (Williams/ Coleman), whom he now meets on 7 lbs better terms.This is another open affair in which we side with German-bred Kruzlinin (Donald McCain/ McCoy), who has won his last 3 races, two of them over hurdles at Perth. Despite being by Sholokhov ourt of a DSurumu mare, he appears to handle very soft ground well enough. Ex-French Elenika (Paul Nicholls/ Daryl Jacob) could be the main danger.

Nicholls also has good chances in the handicap chase at 15.40 and the listed handicap hurdle at 16.15 with the top-weights Cedre Bleu (Jacob) and Edgardo Sol (Harry Derham)- second last time over fences to the very smart Cue Card, but also very useful over hurdles. However we are not certain that he can concede 10 lbs to Lyvius (Henderson/ Geraghty), who has a good German pedigree and appears to have crept in here off a very lenient weight. Henderson and Geraghty can also take the handicap hurdle at 14.30 with Otto the Great, who can overturn the Ascot form with Ivor´s King (Colin and Joe Tizzard) on 11 lbs better terms. Nicholls introduces a very interesting flat winner in the opening novice hurdle at 13.25 - Aaim to Prosper (Jacob), winner of the Cesarewitch last month( for the second time) under top weight. Possibly he might find today´s distance on the short side., and we would rather go with the Tizzards´ Kings Lad, despite his penalty and the fact that he is held by Meg anisi (Rebecca Curtis/ McCoy) on earier running.

Newbury - betting forecast:
1. Race: Aaim To Prosper - Meganisi - Kings Lad
2. Race: Kruzhlinin - Elenika - Parsnip Pete
3. Race: Ivor`S King - Otto The Great - African Gold
4. Race: Houblon Des Obeaux - Hadrian`s Approach - Highland Lodge
5. Race: Sizing Santiago - Alvarado - Cedre Bleu
6. Race: Vendor - Edgardo Sol - Call Back
7. Race: O`faolains Boy - Oscar Rock - Larks Wing