Monday, September 17, 2012

4 meetings today

3 very poor meetings in the UK today, while in Ireland the Listowel Harvest Festival continues. At Brighton Tropical Song (John Gosden/ William Buick) should certainly win the 2yo maiden at 15.20, biut will probably be at an impossible price. Gosden has an amazing 42% strike rate here. From the betting point of view the 1 1/2 mile handicap at 17.20 is more interesting and Blue Dune (Mark Johnston/ Neil Callan), stepping up in trip, could be the answer here. Sommersturm (Barney Curley/ Tom Queally) is the unknown factor here. He has finished last on both his 2012 flat starts, but that does not mean much with this trainer, and he has now dropped to a very low rating; remember he finished 4th in the Union-Rennen - that was 5 years ago, but if he is right, he must have a chance in this company.

At Musselburgh, Richard Fahey must have a decent chance of taking the 5 furlongs handicap for 2yo´s at 17.10; both his runners Bispham Green (Shane B. Kelly) and Done Dreaming (Tony Hamilton) could be involved in the finish. Lady Poppy (George Moore/ Peter Mcdonald), from the family of Overdose, could be the main danger. A handicap over the same trip for older horses at 18.10 could go to Koolgreycat (Neil Wilson/ Freddie Tylicki). Tylicki (5 winners on Saturday!) rode this one to victory over CD in May and is now back in the saddle.

The card at Wolverhampton is even worse than the turf racing in Britain today. We shall venture a tiny each-way bet on German-bred Gwilym (Tony Newcombe/ Chris Catlin) in the 6 furlongs handicap at 17.30. His recent efforts have all been terrible, but he has dropped to a ´very low rating and usually runs his best races at this track.

The racing is better at Listowel, where there are 3 flat races, 3 over jumps and a bumper. The best race is the novice chase over 2 1/2 miles at 17.05; only 4 runners, but all pretty useful. Pride of the Arctic (Peter Fahey/ Adrian Leigh) has won his last two races in good style, but must give 7 lbs away, which looks difficult. Carlito Brigante (Gordon Elliott/ Davy Russell) was a very smart hurdler and won the Coral Cup at Cheltenham last year. Sweet My Lord (Willier Mullins/ Ruby Walsh) was not quite as good over sticks, but won his first chase well and is probably better suited by the likely heavy ground, so he is the selection. Mullins and Walsh can follow up in the next race with Chiltern Hills, though this looks trickier.