Tuesday, September 18, 2012

4 meetings today

4 more low level meetings today, and there are some small fields at Folkestone and Yarmouth which are not at all punter-friendly. Only 7 run in the main event at Yarmouth, a handicap for 3yo´s over an extended 1 mile 3 furlongs at 18.00 CET. Willie Wag Tail (Ed Walker/ George Baker) is the favourite here after running well in hotter races at Goodwood and York, but we prefer Expert Fighter (Saeed bin Suroor/ Frankie Dettori); he finished well behind Willie Wag Tail at York, but is now 5 lbs better off and the Godolphin stables can do no wrong at present. One we really like at Yarmouth is the ex-German Toughness Danon (Brendan Powell/ David Kenny) in the 1 3/4 miles handicap at 18.30.

He finished third in the German Derby 3 years ago, and although he has been mainly disappointing since, including some very poor efforts over hurdles, he is so well handicapped now that he must have a good chance in this company; he was noted running on well from an unpromising position on his last two starts, and the extra distance today should be in his favour.

At Folkestone, there could be another Godolphin winner with the lightly-raced Future Security (bin Suroor/ Silvestre de Sousa) in the 1 1/2 miles handicap at 17.50. This is however quite a tricky race, and Luca Cumani´ s Infinite Hope (Kirsty Milczarek), another lightly-raced 3yo, looks dangerous, while Enery (Mark Johnston/ Franny Norton) is much more exposed, having already run 15 times, but he has won 4 races including his last two, and the stable continues in great form.

The fields are bigger at Thirsk and winners just as hard to find. German-bred Fieldgunner Kirkup (David Barron/ Graham Gibbons) was a CD winner 19 days ago and can possibly defy a 3 lbs rise in the weights at 16.40. There are 2 more German-breds in the following 1 1/2 mile handicap, top-weight Noble Alan (Nicky Richards/ Paddy Aspell) and Full Speed (PA Kirby/ Matt O´Connell); we prefer the former, who rarely runs on the flat but is a decent hurdler, while 10yo Maneki Neko (Edwin Tuer/ Tony Hamilton) is a possible danger; he has only run once in the past 16 months, but has a good record over this CD.

In Ireland, the Listowel Harvest Festival goes into its third day with another mixed card: 4 flat races followed by 3 over jumps. The most valuable race is the 2 miles handicap hurdle at 17.35 with 18 runners. The interesting one is Train of Thought (Dermot Weld/ DG Lavery), winner of his only hurdle race so far, a novice event at the Galway Festival. Given his trainer´s record, he could easily outclass this field, but on the face of it he is not well handicapped for that win in a much lower grade. Weld can in any case take the opening 2yo maiden at 15.35 with Johnny Lynch (Pat Smullen).