Derby Day!

The Queen starts her Diamond Jubilee celebrations by going to the Derby, and whatever one thinks of the monarchy (in our case, not much) her presence at Epsom today is good for British racing and a big boost for the race. The race itself is at 17.00 CET and there are only 9 runners - the smallest field in more than a century. This is due to the fact that Camelot (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien) has been hot favourite for the race ever since he won the Racing Post Trophy last October; that race. and the Newmarket 2,000 Guineas, are historically the two most reliable trials and he won them both in the style of a top class horse. He has not yet raced beyond a mile but on pedigree he will certainly stay the trip and basically he looks almost unbeatable. although we expect him to win, we won´t be betting on him; not only do we dislike betting at odds-on, favourites have a poor record in the race. In fact there have been 31 odds-on favourites in the history of the race, and only 17, jus t over half, have won.

Looking for alternatives, the first port of call is O´Brien´s other runner Astrologer (Ryan Moore), an impressive winner at Chester last time, and who will probably make the running. O´Brien has already won the 1,000 Guineas and also yesterday´s Oaks with the "wrong" runner, so he cannot be left out of calculations. Then there is Bonfire (Andrew Balding/ Jimmy Fortune), who won the Dante Stakes in good style, usually the best trial for this race over a distance. He looks easily the best of the British, but his problem is his suspect temperament; with a huge crowd and lengthy and noisy preliminaries, he could well have lost the race before it is even started. Main Sequence (David Lanigan/ Ted Durcan) is unbeaten in 4 starts and last time out won the Lingfield Derby Trial on the all-weather, with Cavaleiro (Marcus Tregoning/ Hayley Turner) third. With all due respect, th form does not amount to much and we would not be surprised to see Cavaleiro to finish in front of him now. Thought Worthy (John Gosden/ William Buick) won a listed race at Newmarket., but seems a late developing type and more of a St. Leger horse. Mickdaam (Richard Fahey/ Paul Hanagan) is tough and consistent, but hardly good enough, although much better than Balding´s second runner Minimize Risk (Jamie Spencer).

Bonfire should run well, but there is a risk involved; Camelot should definitely run a big race, but is no value at all; the alternatives are Astrologer and for a real long-hot Cavaleiro. The Queen would surely love to see a female jockey win, and so would we.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Grandeur - Entifaadha - Oxford Charley
2. Race: Heavy Metal - Euxton Hall - Lastchancelucas
3. Race: St Nicholas Abbey - Beaten Up - Masked Marvel
4. Race: Bear Behind - Catfish - Judge `N Jury
5. Race: Camelot - Bonfire - Astrology
6. Race: King`S Warrior - Communicator - Quiz Mistress
7. Race: Baby Strange - Sutton Veny - Piscean