Monday, April 25, 2011

Irish Grand National at Fairyhouse

The Irish Grand National over 3 miles 5 furlongs at 17.55 CET at Fairyhouse is the big race of the day, but looks extremely difficult, as hardly any of the runners have raced over this distance and also very few of them have run on ground as firm as this. The situation is further complicated by the fact that the heavily-backed ante-post favourite, Gordon Elliott´s Beautiful Sound, is only second reserve and no means certain to get a run. If he gets into the field, he would be our selection, as he is one of the few who tick most of the right boxes.
Leading owner JP McManus obviously want to win this, as he has no fewer than 6 entries, with stable jockey Tony McCoy partnering Nicky Henderson´s Quantitativeasing; he could go well but in our opinion is not well handicapped. Top-weight Synchronised (Jonjo O´Neill/ Alan Crowe) is the class act here, having won the Welsh equivalent and finished 3rd in the Midlands race, but he needs easier ground, amd possibly stable-companion Sunnyhillboy (Richie McLernon) has a better chance. Prince Erik (Dermot Weld/Davy Condon) is one of many moving up quite dramatically in distance. Willie Mullins saddles 4 runners, with Ruby Walsh booked for Shakervilz, who has been off the track for almost a year; possibly Some Target, ridden by the trainer´s nephew Emmet, and who ran quite well at Cheltenham, is the Mullins pick. Another to consider is Caim Hill (Philip Fenton/ Brian O´Connell), but if he runs, Beautiful Sound is our choice.
The card opens with a Grade Two hurdle race over 2 1/2 miles at 15.35. This is a very hot event, but we hope that Blackstairmountain (Mullins/ Walsh) can recover his best form and score here. Donnas Palm (Noel Meade/ Paul Carberry) and the mare Voler la Vedette (Colm Murphy/ Andrew Lynch) are the main dangers. Mullins and Walsh can follow up with Dare to Doubt in the Grade Two novice hurdle at 16.45.
Walsh has another winning chance on Paul Nolan´s Aura about You in the mares listed chase at 19.00. Last time out she beat odds-on favourite For Bill (Michael Winters/ Davy Russell) in a similar event at Limerick. However the latter is now 6 lbs better off and can reverse the placings, while Sway (O´Neill/ McCoy) and Coscorrig (Dessie Hughes/ Ben Cooper) are also not out of it.
There is also jumps racing in Ireland at Cork, but all 7 races are restricted to amateur riders and our advice to punters is to leave this meeting alone.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Voler La Vedette - Donnas Palm - Stonemaster
2. Race: Kerb Appeal - Datokepe - Clan Tara
3. Race: Dare To Doubt - Rathlin - Prima Vista
4. Race: Kandinski - Corbally Ghost - Roebuck
5. Race: Prince Erik - Quantitativeeasing - Some Target
6. Race: Torphichen - Osirixamix - Armaramak
7. Race: Coscorrig - Aura About You - For Bill
8. Race: Askmeroe - Guts For Garters - Red Basil