Saturday, December 11, 2010

superb card at Cheltenham: last 4 races

The Grade One Tingle Creek Chase over 2 miles at 14.55 is the main feature; the race has been transferred from Sandown, and has been won twice by Paul Nicholl´s German-bred Twist King. He has been entered again, but he is a real Sandown specialist and has never run well at Cheltenham. In any case it seems highly likely that he will be switched to Huntingdon´s Peterborough Chase, if tomorrow´s meeting goes ahead. The stable´s main hope here is clearly Master Minded (Noel Fehily), twice winner of the Champion Chase over this CD. If he runs up to his best then he will not be beaten, but there are still question marks hanging over him after two below-par efforts here last season. He is certain to start at a very short price and there may be better value in opposing him with German-bred Gauvain (Nick Williams/ Daryl Jacob), an impressive CD winner last time, Kalahari King (Ferdy Murphy/ Graham Lee), who finished in front of him in the Champin Chase, or Petit Robin (Henderson/ Gera ghty), who has been off since April but runs best fresh.

The Vote AP Gold Cup (the name of the race refers to the campaign to get Tony McCoy voted BBC Sportsperson of the Year) is the big betting race of the day. This handicap chase over 2 miles 5 furlongs is in many respects a re-run of the Paddy Power Chase over this CD last month, in which Little Josh (Nigel and Sam Twiston-Davies) made all the running, with quite a few of these well behind. We are not at all sure that he can repeat this feat and expect Great Endeavour (David Pipe/ Timmy Murphy) to reverse the form. Other dangers are the Nicholls´ pair Poquelin (Ian Popham) - who this last year but is now much higher in the weights- and Robinson Collonges (Fehily), the Henderson pair Mad Max (Paul Carberry) and Dave´s Dream (Geraghty) and German-bred Noble Alan (Nicky Richatds/ Brian Hrding). Th lst two are moving up in distance but if they stay the trip, look very dangerous. There are 5 Irish runners, of whom Fingeronthepulse (Tom Taaffe/ McCoy could come out best, while Pige on Island (Twiston-Davies/ Paddy Brennan) is another possible off a very low weight.

The International Hurdle (Grade Two) at 16.05 has three genuine candidates for the Champion Hurdle in the line-up: Cue Card (Colin and Joe Tizzard) and Silviani Conti (Nicholls/ Fehily) both unbeaten so far, and the tough and consistent Menorah (Philip Hobbs/ Richard Johnson) who has never finished out of the first two and is unbeaten here. One of this trio will undoubtedly win - possibly Cue Card who looks a champion in the making. The meeting ends with a Grade Two novice hurdle over 3 miles at 16.40, another very tough race in which 7 of the 11 runners are last-time-out winners. Our selection here is Golden Chieftain to make it a double for the Tizzard family.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Woolcombe Folly - Consigliere - Cornas
2. Race: Sam Winner - A Media Luz - Pantxoa
3. Race: Time For Rupert - Chicago Grey - Quinz
4. Race: Karabak - Zaynar - Celestial Halo
5. Race: Master Minded - Twist Magic - Gauvain

6. Race: Dave`S Dream - Little Josh - Robinson Collonges
7. Race: Menorah - Cue Card - Silviniaco Conti
8. Race: Mossley - Highland Valley - Sybarite