Saturday, December 11, 2010

Superb card at Cheltenham: first 4 races

Today´s Cheltenham card is one of the best of the entire season, and worthy of the Festival itself, with 8 classy and highly competitive events. It is probably the safest policy to follow trainers in form, especially after a weather break, and Nicky Henderson, with 2 winners here yesterday, and Nigel Twiston-Davies certainly come into that category, while we would be a bit cautious about Paul Nicholls´ runners; the champion trainer has fancied runners in almost very race but had to suffer a couple of reverses yesterday.

In the opening 2 mile handicap chase at 12.40 CET Nicholls´ Woolcombe Folly (Ryan Mahon) has top-weight after winning 7 of his last 8 races; however his only flop came at the Festival here and he has been up 12 lbs for his latest Ascot success and we would rather go against him. David Pipe´s two runners I´msingingtheblues (Danny Cook) and Consigliere (Tom Scudamore) are on our short list, together with Cornas (Nick Williams/ Daryl Jacob) and I´m Delilah (Ferdy Murphy/ Graham Lee) - who fell when looking the likely winner last time. In a really tough race one shoud also consider Oh Crick (Alan King/ Choc Thornton) and Tramantano (Twiston-Davis/ Paddy Brennan), who have both come down the weights.

The 3yo hurdle at 13.10 should concern the penalised runners Pantxao (King/ Choc) and Sam Winner (Nicholls/ Noel Fehily), but the interesting one here is the filly A Media Luz (Henderson/ Barry Geraghty), like the other two French-bred, who was last seen in the Prix de Diane. Henderson`s newcomers are always well schooled and she can score on her first race over the sticks.

The runners in the novice chase over an extended 3 miles at 13.45 are more experienced and here we select Time for Rupert (Paul Webber/ Wayne Kennedy), who has been first or second on all his 4 starts here and stays well. The improved Quinz (Philip Hobbs/ Richard Johnson) has won both his starts this season and looks the danger.

The Grade Two Relkeel Hurdle over 2 1/2 miles is the first real highlight on the card. Celestial Halo (Nicholls/ Harry Skelton) is the top-rated runner, having finished in the money in the last two Champion Hurdles, but he is unproven over the distance and is now reverting to hurdles after two feeble efforts over fences. We much prefer Henderson´s two runers Zaynar (Geraghty) and Sentry Duty (Andrew Tinkler), a smart staying handicapper on the flat, but the strong each-way selection is Karabak (King/ Tony McCoy), runner-up last time to Silviani Conti (runs later in the afternoon) with some of these behind.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Woolcombe Folly - Consigliere - Cornas
2. Race: Sam Winner - A Media Luz - Pantxoa
3. Race: Time For Rupert - Chicago Grey - Quinz
4. Race: Karabak - Zaynar - Celestial Halo
5. Race: Master Minded - Twist Magic - Gauvain

6. Race: Dave`S Dream - Little Josh - Robinson Collonges
7. Race: Menorah - Cue Card - Silviniaco Conti
8. Race: Mossley - Highland Valley - Sybarite