Friday, December 10, 2010

Cheltenham today

Despite the loss of the cross-country race, it is still a excellent card at Cheltenham and starts with a very open novice chase over 2 miles 5 furlongs at 13.10 CET. All 6 runners have useful form, including Rebel du Maquis (Paul Nicholls/ Harry Skelton), unbeaten in two starts over fences; our preference is for Spirit River (Nicky Henderson/ Barry Geraghty), who fell on his chase debut but can atone for that mistake today; he was the best of these over hurdles, winning at the Festival here last season. Nicholls can in any case take the final novice hurdle with Al Ferof, for whom there are great hopes. He was a smart bumper last season and has not run since finishing second to the top-class Cue Card in the Champion Bumper here. If Noel Fehily is passed fit by the course doctor, he is expected to take the ride, otherwise Sam Thomas will be on board.

The other 4 races are handicaps, all with 16+ runners (4 places!) and all looking very tricky indeed. The best race is the listed chase over 3 miles+ at 15.25, in which Nicholls sets a poser by saddling the top-weight Neptune Collonges (Ryan Mahon) as well as the lightly-weighted Forest Pennant (Ian Popham). The former is clearly the class act in the field, having finished 3rd and 4th in the last two Gold Cups here. Midnight Chase (Neil Mulholland/ Dougie Costello), who has an excellent record here and has won 5 of his last 6 starts, is one obvious danger, so are Nigel Twiston-Davies´ pair Knowhere (Paddy Brennan) and Irish Raptor (David England) as well as the enigmatic but talented Faasel (David Pipe/ Tom Scudamore).

We also like the look of Monetary Fund (Henderson/ Geraghty) in the hurdle race at 13.40, Fine Parchment (Charlie Mann/ Peter Toole) in the race for conditional jockeys at 14.15, and German-bred First Stream in the 3 mile hurdle at 14.50. However all these races look very open and there are bound to be some surprises. For those looking for a real long-shot, we suggest Halla San (Richard Fahey/ Brian Hughes) at 13.40.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Spirit River - Rebel Du Maquis - Wishfull Thinking
2. Race: Monetary Fund - Aather - L`Accordioniste
3. Race: Font - Ravethebrave - Wolf Moon
4. Race: Cross Kennon - Ackertac - Duke Of Lucca
5. Race: Neptune Collonges - Midnight Chase - Rare Bob
6. Race: Garde Champetre - King Johns Castle - Sizing Australia
7. Race: Al Ferof - Prince Of Pirates - Master Beau