Saturday, October 31, 2009

high class jumping at Ascot, Wetherby and Naas (Ireland)

today has the best jumping cards so far of the new N.H. season, with Wetherby´s Charlie Hall Chase over 3 miles 1 furlong at 15.55 CET taking pride of place. Only 5 runners but still a fascinating race, with our clear preference for the two bottom weights Tamarinbleu (David Pipe/ Tom Scudamore) and Ollie Magern (Nigel Twiston-Davies/ Paddy Brennan). Ollie won this race in 2006 and 2007 but has not won since; however he was a good runner-up last year, is now much better weighted and his stable is in good form. The West Yorkshire Hurdle, also a Grade Two and over the same trip, is another good race with a small field, but German-bred Fair Along (Philip Hobbs/ Rhys Flint) best in at the weights. Lough Derg (Pipe/ Scu) and Pettifour (Twiston-Davies/ Brennan) are both smart, but cannot normally concede weight to Fair Along. The other big race at Wetherby is the listed mares hurdle at 15.20, in which we give the best chances to Irish challenger Serpentaria (Gordon Elliott/ Jason M aguire) and Treaty Flyer (Alison Thorpe/ Johnny Farrelly). There are also 3 listed races at Ascot, all handicaps and all looking very tricky for punters. OUr short lsusts are Seven is my Number (who has no.7!) (Pipe/ Timmy Murphy), Boychuk (Hobbs with stable jockey Richard Johnson riding here) and Just Amazing (Paul Nicholls/ Ruby Walsh) in the 3 mile chase at 14.50, Classic Swain (Nicholls/ Walsh) - who has been 1/2 on his last 9 starts -, Hibiki (Hobbs, this time with promising claimer Giles Hawkins) and Michael Flips (Andrew Turnell/ Nick Scholfield) in the 2 mile hurdle at 16.00, and Medicinal (Andy Haynes/ Scholfield), Nikola (Twiston-Davies/ Tom Molloy) and Royal Wedding (Nick Gifford/ Liam Treadwell) in the 2 miles 1 furlong chase at 16.35. Medicinal is only a longshot on form, but he is the only won in the field to have run since the spring, which could give him an advantage. Noble Prince (Paul Nolan/ Aidan Cawley), who contests the 2 1/2 mile hurdle at 15.10 at Naas , could be another German-bred winner; the most interesting entry here is Cheltenham winner Forpadytheplasterer in the grade 3 chase at 14.35, but trainer Tom Cooper says he will not run if the going is too heavy.

Betting forecast Wetherby:
1. Race: Nino Cochise - Mr Crystal - Lady Pilot
2. Race: Manor Park - Takween - Palmito
3. Race: Marleybow - The Rocking Dock - Lease Lend
4. Race: Treaty Flyer - Serpentaria - My Petra
5. Race: Tamarinbleu - Deep Purple - Ollie Magern
6. Race: Fair Along - Pettifour - Lough Derg
7. Race: Goldan Jess - Amalfi Coast - Ramvaswani