Derby Day at Epsom

The days when parliament would adjourn for the Derby are long gone, but Derby Day is still one of the most important dates in the racing calendar and today´s Epsom card is excellent in every respect. The Derby, now sponsored by Investec, is run at 16.45 CET and has12 runners, 8 of them - including all the favourites- trained in Ireland. Aidan O´Brien saddles 6 of them, with stable jockey Johnny Murtagh having chosen Rip Van Winkle, 4th last time out in the 2,000 Guineas. Murtagh has won the Derby 3 times, so knows what is required, and clearly the horse must have been working extremely well, but it is still a surprising choice. Not only does he face two horses that finished in front of him at Newmarket, there is still a clear stamina doubt. There seem to be no such doubts about Fame and Glory (Seamus Heffernan), who is unbeaten in 4 starts and won the most important Irish trial in impressive fashion. Heffernan has often enough been a supersub for the stable and in fact the st able jockey has historically almost always chosen the wrong mount here. O´Brien has booked champion jockey Ryan Moore for Black Bear Island, who finished strongly to win the Dante, usually the best English trial, and is a brother to High Chaparral, so is bred for the job. O´Brien´s other runners Age of Aquarius (Pat Smullen), Master of the Horse (/Richard Hughes) and the possible pacemaker Golden Sword (Colm O´Donoghue) are also all in with a chance, and the doubts about the stable´s pecking order mean that 2,000 Guineas winner Sea of Stars (John Oxx/ Mick Kinane) is likely to start favourite. No 2,000 winner has gone on to win the Derby since Nashwan 20 years ago, and stamina is again the issue here, as Sea the Stars is by the miler Cape Cross; however his dam Urban Sea won the Arc and has also thrown the top-class Derby winner Galileo, so the odds are in his favour. The other Irish runner Gan Amhras, representing last years winning team of Jim Bolger and Kevin Manning, sho uld have no stamina limitations; he is a son of Galileo and ran on well when third in the Guineas. An English winner here would be a miracle. Crowded House (Brian Meehan/ Jamie Spencer) is possibly the best of them, but ran badly in the Dante when hot favourite. Godolphin is out of form, so Kite Wood (Saeed bin Suroor/ Frankie Dettori) looks up against it while Momntaff (Mick Channon/ Richard Hills) and Debussy (John Gosden/ Jimmy Fortune) are well held on form. The run of the race, and the tactics used by the O´Brien team may be decisive, as well as the ability (or not) of the suspect stayers Rip Van Winkle and Sea the Stars to get the trip. The record of Jim Bolger and John Oxx in big races demands the utmost respect, but for us the logical winner is Fame and Glory.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Marching Time - London Bridge - Union Island
2. Race: Desert Auction - Walkingonthemoon - Little Perisher
3. Race: Spacious - Eva`s Request - Alnadana
4. Race: Safari Mischief - Wi Dud - Cake
5. Race: Sea The Stars - Fame And Glory - Rip Van Winkle
6. Race: Hot Diamond - Martyr - Coin Of The Realm
7. Race: Aye Aye Digby - Piscean - Something