Scottish Grand National at Ayr

The Scottish Grand National, a handicap chase over 4 miles at 16.25 CET at Ayr, is easily the most valuable race of the day and with 21 runners very tricky to predict, especially as the ground, despite watering all night, is riding fast. Chief Dan George (Jimmy Moffatt/ Paddy Aspell) is relatively inexprienced but still seems to have the best credentials. West End Rocker (Alan King/ Robert Thornton), who changed hands earlier this week, is one obvious danger. It is hard to fancy a horse that is still a maiden in a race like this, but Nine de Sivola (Ferdy Murphy/ Graham Lee) ran third here in 2007 and has a clear chance on form. There has been no Scottsh winner for a long time, and the main local hope Merigo (Andrew Parker/ Timmy Murphy) apparently needs it softer. The Scottish Champion Hurdle at 15.50 is, despite its name, a handicap, but the field of 15 includes 2 that ran in the real thing at Cheltenham, Snap Tie (7th) and Sentry Duty (14th).

However they have a lot of weight, and preference is for Medermit (King/ Choc), who ran a great race in the novices event at Cheltenham, Emmpat (Charlie Swan/ David Casey), who won this in 2007, and consistent Ski Sunday (Tim Vaughan/ Seamus Durack). Our old friend Caracciola (Nicky Henderson/ Barry Geraghty) loves this fast ground und should go well in the 2 3/4 miles handicap hurdle at 17.00. even though the Lando gelding is now 12 years old. Pepysrock can complete a double for trainer and jockey in the 2 mile handicap chase at 17.35.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Saticon - Marc Aurele - Giorgio Quercus
2. Race: I`Msingingtheblues - Deep Purple - Turkish Surprise
3. Race: Medermit - Ski Sunday - Secret Tune
4. Race: Chief Dan George - Tricky Trickster - Nine De Sivola
5. Race: Echo Point - Risk Runner - Warsaw Pact
6. Race: Leslingtaylor - Dominican Monk - Pepsyrock
7. Race: Fresh Air And Fun - Valley Ride - Rustarix
8. Race: Gilbarry - Rollwiththepunches - Witherspoon