Saturday, February 07, 2009

DENMAN at KEMPTON!!!

the extreme weather conditions of the past few days have forced the British racing authorities to show flexibility and the decision to stage yesterday´s abandoned Kempton meeting today, instead of the already abandoned Newbury and Warwick, has been greeted with delight all round. The most important point is that Newbury´s main event, long planned for the comeback of Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Denman, will also be run at Kempton and will now be staged as the Levy Board Chase over 3 miles at 15.50 CET with 7 runners. Obviously all eyes will be on Denman (Paul Nicholls/ Ruby Walsh), who has not run since his Gold Cup win and has suffered from an irregular heartbeat in the meantime. However he would not be running now were his team not fully convinced that he is back in top form, and it must be remembered that he has only ever tasted defeat once in his career. On ratings he is well clear of today´s 6 opponents and he is certain to start at odds on, but he does not appeal as a goo d bet today, especially as the tight Kempton track may not be ideal. In our view Joe Lively (Colin and Joe Tizzard) each-way is the bet here, as this front-runner should be well suited by the very soft ground and Kempton is a track that suits horses forcing the pace. Alberta´s Run (Jonjo O´Neill/ Tony McCoy) ran his bst ever race when runner-up this CD at Christmas to Kauto Star, but in his case the soft ground is a problem. Trabolgan (Nicky Henderson/ Barry geraghty), running in the same colours, was a huge prospect in younger days, but showed vey little on his comeback after a 3 year injury break. David Pipe´s pair of Madison du Berlais (Tom Scudamore) and An Accordion (Johnny Farrelly) could also pick up some place money, but Denman to beat Joe Lively seems the most likely result.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Oiseau De Nuit - Pearl - Tinagoodnight
2. Race: Turkish Surprise - Andytown - Pancake
3. Race: Pause And Clause - Helpston - Springfield Raki
4. Race: Bally Conn - Thursday`S Knight - Ring Bo Ree
5. Race: Denman - Albertas Run - Joe Lively
6. Race: Lightning Strike - Tartak - Osako D`Airy
7. Race: Pretty Star - Pass Me A Dime - Hermano Cordobes
8. Race: Tzora - Polly Potter - Timon`S Present