Saturday, February 07, 2009

rest of Kempton and Ayr (inspection)

obviously the rest of the Kempton card pales into insignificance compared to Denman´s comeback, but there are still some competitive races. The novice hurdle at 14.40 CET is interesting and we take Emma Lavelle´s Pause and Clause (Jack Doyle), runner-up to the smart Mad Max last time out, to score here from Helpston (Pam Sly/ warren Marston) and Nicky Henderson´s ex-French The Shoe (Barry Geraghty). The class 2 graduation chase over 2 1/2 miles at 16.25 could go to a German-bred runner, as Venetia Williams´ Lightning Strike (Sam Thomas), gloing for a hat-trick, and Charlie Mann´s Moon over Miami (Noel Fehily) are both well treated - but neither may want the ground too testing. Front-runner Tartak (Tom George/ Paddy Brennan) and Osako d´Airy (Paul Nicholls/ Ruby Walsh) are the alternatives. A more likely German-bred winner in our view is Pretty Star (Venetia Williams/ Aidan Coleman), an easy winner last time who can follow up in the 3 mile handicap chase at 17.00. Racing is ce rtain to go ahead at Kempton, but looks doubtful at Ayr, where a second inspection has been called. The most interesting runner here would be Money Trix (Nicky Richards/ Davy Condon) in the class 2 handicap chase over 3 miles 1 furlong at 15.00. However this one time smart performer has a huge weig ht to carry, and under the likely conditions, the locally-trained See you There (Lucinda Russell/ Peter Buchanan) could be a better bet. Russell and Buchanan can also score with Silver by Nature in the novice chase at 14.30, who fell last time out when going like a winner, while Peter Monteith saddles two German-breds First Look (Oliver Greenall) and Quicuyo (Keith Renwick) in the 2 mile handicap at 16.45. Both are sons of Acatenango, but Quicuyo, a brother to Quijano, seems to act well enough on any going.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Grizebeck - Merigo - Manadam
2. Race: Silver By Nature - Cromwell Court - Great Approach
3. Race: Money Trix - See You There - Wild Cane Ridge
4. Race: Sammy Spiderman - Run To Space - Cybora
5. Race: Delightfully - Lie Forrit - Kempski
6. Race: Quicuyo - Raysrock - Polar Gunner
7. Race: Nelson Du Ronceray - Solway Sunset - Oleolat