Thursday, November 27, 2008

Newbury today

Today is the first day of Newbury´s three day Hennessy Gold Cup meeting and there is a strong card, even though some of the fields are small. The Grade Two novice chase over 3 miles at 15.05 CET is a case in point, but all 6 runners have good form this season, 4 of them winners last time out; this race was been won in the past by some smart performers and this is certain to be so agan today. The Tother One (Paul Nicholls/ Sam Thomas) is likely to be favourite, despite some recent setbacks for the yard. He holds Gone to Lunch (Jeremy Scott/ Tony McCoy) on Extere form, but the latter has run much better since and is now 3 lbs better off. A big danger could be Tartak (Tom George/ Denis O´Regan), who had good form in France and has twice won very easily since joining his present connections. However this is a big step up in distance for him. There are 5 runners in the beginners chase here at 13.55, which looks a match between Straw Bear (Nick Gifford/ Tony McCoy) and Pasco (Nicho lls/ Thomas). Straw Bear could never get into the race behind another Nicholls runner Tatenen last time, but finished in front of Pasco previously and was also better over hurdles, so in theory he should be the winner today.

Betting forecast:
1.Race: Over Sixty - Carole`S Legacy - Tara Two Hills
2.Race: Pasco - Straw Bear - Isn`T That Lucky
3.Race: Parlesotho - Cootehill - Tuskar Rock
4.Race: The Tother One - Gone To Lunch - Tartak
5.Race: High Oscar - Jean Le Poisson - Briery Fox
6.Race: Hector`S Choice - Kerry`S Girl - Schiehallion
7.Race: Pepe Simo - Abbevillian - Larks Lad