Grand National at Aintree

The Grand National, run this afternoon at 17.15 CET over 4 miles 3 furlongs at Aintree is the best-known race in the world and also the biggest betting event of them all. Carlo Brigante is a non-runner; top-weight Lord Windermere will be ridden by Brian O´Connell, as Robbie McNamara had a bad fall yesterday at Wexford.
The going is good to soft/ good in places. There was some early morning rain, but not much by the sound of it and it is expected to be dry and windy this afternoon.

With 39 runners almost anything can happen and the luck of the race will be decisive. All 39 are qualified and none of them is without a chance, but certain aspects must be considered. One is that a large number of runners have been specially trained for the race, often since last year, and their connections have gone to great lengths to protect their handicap rating, whether by running in the wrong races or by not running at all. The National is the only handicap in which winners after the weights have been published are given no penalty,so it is worth having a second look at those who have won since. Five come into this category, Rocky Creek (Paul Nicholls/ Sam Twiston-Davies), Soll (David Pipe/ Tom Scudamore), Rebel Rebellion (Nicholls/ Ryan Mahon), Cause of causes (Gordon Elliott/ Paul Carberry) and The Druids Nephew (Neil Mulholland/ Aidan Coleman). Timeform have given the last-named as the best in on current ratings, but we definitely prefer Rocky Creek, most impressive at Kempton last time and from a trainer/ jockey team in fantastic form. We also like Cause of Causes, whose trainer is also in great form. However he is owned by JP McManus, whose main jockey AP McCoy long ago decided to partner Jonjo O´Neill´s Shutthefrontdoor and connections have repeatedly expressed their optimism. With McCoy due to retire - probably immediately after the race if he wins- this would be the most popular result of all, although plenty will also be rooting for First Lieutenant (Mouse Morris/ Nina Carberry), as it is certainly time for a woman jockey to win here. However we are not really convinced that he will stay this far - which applies to quite a few of the runners as many of them are trying the trip for the first time.

There are only very few chases over 4 miles plus, so the previous year´s result is also a good guide, although the great Red Rum was the last horse to win more than once - and that was 40 years ago. Last year´s winner Pineau de Re (Dr. Newland/ Daryl Jacob) tries again, as does runner-up Balthazar King (Philip Hobbs/ Richard Johnson), 4th-placed Alvarado (Fergal O´Brien/ Paul Moloney), while Rocky Creek was only fifth. Oldtimer Oscar Time (Robert and Sam Waley-Cohen) must also be considered as he has twice finished in the frame and his amateur rider is actually the most successful jockey of all on the National course.

Our hunch horse here is Spring Heeled (Jim Culloty/ Nick Scholfield), who seems to have been given an old-fashioned preparation - as has Shutthefrontdoor- although he will not find it easy to confirm last year´s Cheltenham win over Cause of Causes at these weights.

We will stick our neck out and take 4 against the field:
Rocky Creek, Shutthefrontdoor, Cause of Causes and Spring Heeled.