Aintree Grand National meeting: day two

another high class card at Aintree today, but looking very tricky for punters wth question marks hanging over several of the leading candidates.

Main feature is the Melling Chase over 2 1/2 miles at 16.25 CET and this intermediate distance is the problem- too far possibly for some and too short for others. Al Ferof (Paul Nicholls/ Sam Twiston-Davies) was third in the King George over 3 miles, with Champagne Fever (Willie Mullins/ Ruby Walsh) a close 4th, Cue Card (Colin Tizzard/ Daryl Jacob) 5th and Johns Spirit (Jonjo O´Neill/ Richie Mclernon) 6th. They should all be better suited by today´s trip, while Sire de Grugy (Gary and Joh Moore) and Simply Ned (Nicky Richards/ Brian Harding), 4th and 5th in the Queen Mother, are two-milers. The one they all have to beat is Don Cossack (Gordon Elliott/ AP McCoy), slightly below form in the Ryanair - but he seems not to like Cheltenham anyway. This is his ideal trip, but we are definitely worried about the Nicholls and Mullins runners.

The other graded races are for novices. Nicholls has a strong hand in the 3 mile 1 furlong chase at 15.50 with Irish Saint (Nick Scholfield) and Saphir du Rheu (Sam TD); the latter is clear top-rated, but this is based more on his hurdles form and in fact his chase form is not so special, he has only won once over fences and failed to complete on his other starts, while Irish Saint has been very consistent he is up in distance but gives the Impression that he can stay. The main dangers are probably Ainsi Fideles (David Pipe/ Tom Scudamore), who has won 7 of his last 8 races - but all in modest company- and Caroles Destrier (Neil Mulholland/ AP McCoy).
They go over the same distance over hurdles at 17.40, where we make the unbeaten Minella Rocco (Jonjo/ AP) and Roi des Francs (Mullins/ Walsh) the two to beat, while in the shorter novice hurdle at 15.15 we think that the obvious form choice Glingerburn (Richards/ Harding) could be another shaky favourite and prefer John Ferguson´s two flat-bred runners Commissioned (Richard Johnson) and Qewy (McCoy).

The handicaps are of course extremely difficult, but we are hoping for a German-berd winner in the ooener at 14.40. Nexius (Keith Dalgleish/ Paul Townend) was most impressive when winning last time out, and although he has been put up a stone, is still our main hope, as we have not forgotten that he was third to Novellist in the Union-Rennen in 2012. The Topham Chase at 17.05 is almost impossible with 30 runners - we shall go for longshot Maggio each-way, but almost anything could win this.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: The Saint James - Knight`s Parade - Theinval
2. Race: Glingerburn - Qewy - Vago Collonges
3. Race: Saphir Du Rheu - Irish Saint - Carole`s Destrier
4. Race: Champagne Fever - Don Cossack - Al Ferof
5. Race: Rajdhani Express - Monetaire - Ruben Cotter
6. Race: Vyta Du Roc - Minella Rocco - Roi Des Francs
7. Race: Persian Delight - Buveur D`air - Bellshill