Friday, March 20, 2015

Newbury and Sedgefield

there is flat racing at three all-weather tracks today, but in our opinion the jumps racing at Newbury and Sedgefield offers the most interesting sport as well as better betting opportunities.

Most of the top jockeys will be at Newbury and Barry Geraghty can get off to a winning start on Nicky Henderson´s Champagne Express at 15.10; this is quite a hot novice hurdle with all 6 runners having some decent form, but Champagne Express looked one to follow when winning so well at Chepstow last time. The Henderson/ Geraghty team can also go close with Shakalakaboomboom half an hour later; with the ground rapidly drying out, we can ignore his poor recent efforts on much softer going (a comment which will apply to several runners today). Last-time-out winner Mediaeval Chapel is another possible winner for the team at 16.45, but here we prefer The Skyfarmer (Philip Hobbs/ Richard Johnson), who is up in distance but has shown all his best form on good going. The 2 mile handicap hurdle at 17.20 is the trickiest race of the day with many possibilities, so we shall go for a long shot, Red Merlin (Donald McCain/ Noel Fehily), who has been off the track since October; we don´t know the reason, but we hope that it was to avoid the winter ground.

Rather surprisingly, the most valuable race of the day is the handicap hurdle over 2 1/2 miles at 16.35 at Sedgefield. This is another very open race, in which 4 of the 11 runners are CD specialists; we choose Istimraar (Philip Kirby/ Adam Nicol), the only 4yo in the field; his good flat pedigree (he was bred by Hamdan al Maktoum) suggests that he will be well suited by drying conditions, and he was predictably outclassed last time on soft going against Cheltenham runners.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Champagne Express - Rock The Kasbah - Inner Drive
2. Race: Shuil Royale - Noble Legend - Phone Home
3. Race: Last Shadow - Hindon Road - Wild Rover
4. Race: Desert Joe - Medieval Chapel - Letbeso
5. Race: Gassin Golf - Royal Guardsman - Baby King
6. Race: Harbour Court - Twirling Magnet - Pateese
7. Race: Net Work Rouge - Border Breaker - Western Xpress