Thursday, March 19, 2015

5 meetings today

jumps racing this afternoon at Ludlow and Chepstow, as well as Thurles in Ireland, and all-weather flat racing at Wolverhampton and this evening at Chelmsford. Easily the best performer running today is First Lieutenant (Edward O´Grady/ Bryan Cooper), who goes for the 3 mile conditions race over hurdles at 17.30 CET at Thurles. He won the Neptune at Cheltenham back in 2011 and since then has been racing mainly in the top chases- the Lexus, the Hennessy, the Ryanair etc. This is his first race over sticks for more than 3 years, but he is clearly the best horse and should win if getting back into the right rhythm. He has only 3 opponents, the best of which is obviously the lightly-raced Rolly Baby (Willie Mullins/ Ruby Walsh), representing top connections but with a mountain to climb on ratings.

Royale Knight (Dr. Newland/ Will Kennedy) is a similar case in England; he runs in the handicap hurdle over 3 miles at 17.15 at Chepstow, while his major successes have come in top staying chases like the Durham and Scottish Borders Nationals. He is entered for Aintree next month, which his trainer won last year, but is unlikely to get into the field. He is well handicapped over sticks, but we prefer Azure Aware (Kim Bailey/ David Bass).

Bailey also has runners at Ludlow, including the improving Faerie Reel in the mares handicap hurdle at 18.10, for which he has booked AP McCoy. This is a very tricky race and we would love to see our old friend, German-bred Favorite Girl (Mike Appleby/ Jonathan England), win her 4th race of the season, but at these weights we prefer Stephanie Frances (Dand and Harry Skelton). The 2 mile handicap chase at 17.05 has also attracted a small but select field in which the two top-weights could dominate - Mountain King (Philip Hobbs/ Richard Johnson) and Swaledale Lad (Richard Ford/ Harry Challoner).

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Third Opinion - Deano - Native Que
2. Race: Romantic Fashion - Company Coming - Boxing Along
3. Race: Rolling Rocket - Akinspirit - West Council
4. Race: Alisier D`irlande - Getting Late - Frankie Ballou
5. Race: Rolly Baby - Archie Meade - Gold Patrol
6. Race: Kilcross Boy - Annie Alainn - Hannah`s Lane
7. Race: Alamein - For Pedro - On The Qt